000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230924
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 14.7N 108.7W OR ABOUT 360
NM...670 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 23/0900 UTC 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO 
ORGANIZE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. THE SHEAR IS 
FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW GENEVIEVE 
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY 
WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

NONE. 
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE 04N77W TO 05N90W TO 09N105W 
TO 10N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 8.5N99.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE SOUTHWEST 
UNITED STATES. WITH A WEAK TROUGH FROM THE TEXAS BIG BEND TO 
JUST SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 22N110W. THIS TROUGH 
SEPARATES THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM ANOTHER HIGH CENTER OVER 
DOLLY IN THE WEST GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING 
TO MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 120W. 
THIS STEERING FLOW IS ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE TO MOVE 
ON A WESTWARD COURSE WITH THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN MODERATE 
SHEARING EASTERLY FLOW. SLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS 
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL MID TO UPPER LEVEL RESIDUAL 
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF FAUSTO...NEAR 22N124W
...NWD WEST OF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND OVER SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA STATE AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. 

W OF 120W...
BROAD TROUGH COVERS THIS AREA. EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE 
FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF FAUSTO THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS N 
OF 13N.

MODERATE RIDGE IN NW OF FAUSTO. ELSEWHERE EXCEPT FOR THE 
TROPICAL SYSTEM A BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL