000
AXPZ20 KNHC 230334
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 23 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 108.2W OR ABOUT 360
NM...670 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 23/0300 UTC 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 55 KT 
WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 
MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO 
ORGANIZE SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO FIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR
ON THE ORDER OF 20 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 
NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM W AND 60 NM E SEMICIRCLES. THE SHEAR IS 
FORECAST TO RELAX WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND ALLOW GENEVIEVE 
TO INTENSIFY FURTHER...POSSIBLY REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY 
WITHIN 24 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

NONE. 
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N78W TO 14N101W TO 11N111W TO 
05N137W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N 
TO 8N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W AND 
95W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 120W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER NE ARIZONA AND 
COVERS MUCH OF THE SW CONUS AND NRN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK 
SHEAR AXIS OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATES 
THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM ANOTHER HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN GULF 
OF MEXICO. BOTH FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 120W. THIS STEERING FLOW IS 
ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE TO MOVE ON A WESTWARD COURSE 
WITH THE SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN MODERATE SHEARING EASTERLY FLOW. SLY 
FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES TO PULL 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RESIDUAL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANT 
LOW OF FAUSTO NWD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW 
CALIFORNIA STATE AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. 

W OF 120W...
BROAD TROUGH COVERS THIS AREA. EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE 
FROM THE REMNANT LOW OF FAUSTO THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A LARGE AREA OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS N 
OF 12N.

$$
COBB