000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220938
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 20.7N 119.6W...OR ABOUT 550 
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 22/0900 UTC 
MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
60 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO IS ON A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND 
AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE 
SURFACE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP 
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 150 NM N AND 90 NM S SEMICIRCLES 
OF FAUSTO. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MARKEDLY COOLER WATERS. 
FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW MIDDAY 
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE CENTERED NEAR 14.6N 105.2W...OR ABOUT 
270 NM OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 22/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 13 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ 
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM W AND 75 NM E SEMICIRCLES. CONVECTION IS 
LIMITED IN THE E SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR AND THUS 
INTENSIFICATION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW. MORE STEADY  
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. 

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

NONE. 
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE FROM 05N77W TO 09N105W TO 
10N115W TO 08N125W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINTS 5.5N77W AND 12.5N89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
POINTS 9N98W AND 10.5N108W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND 
COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NRN MEXICO...EXCEPT 
FOR A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER WEST TEXAS. THIS SHEAR AXIS  
SEPARATES THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM ANOTHER HIGH CENTER OVER 
THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MAINLY 
DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 115W. THE 
STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 115W-123W AND 
IS ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO TO STEER ON A NORTHWESTWARD 
COURSE. THIS FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NWD ALONG THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW CALIFORNIA STATE AND FEEDING THE 
ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER MONSOON. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS 
DECREASED OVERNIGHT ARIZONA BUT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN 
LATER TODAY.

LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...MIXED IN 
WITH SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS...CONTINUE TO REACH 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA S OF 
CABO SAN LAZARO. SOME OF THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP 
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S AND SW-FACING BEACHES 
...FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS.

W OF 120W...
BROAD TROUGH COVERS THIS AREA. EXCEPT FOR SOME MOISTURE FROM 
FAUSTO THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 15N.

$$
LL