000 AXPZ20 KNHC 220327 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC TUE JUL 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 118.9W...OR ABOUT 515 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO IS ON A DEFINITE WEAKENING TREND AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING DECOUPLED FROM THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM N AND 60 NM S SEMICIRCLES OF FAUSTO. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT TRAVERSES OVER MARKEDLY COOLER WATERS. FAUSTO IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM GENEVIEVE...THE SEVENTH NAMED STORM OF THE 2008 SEASON CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 104.0W...OR ABOUT 245 NM...455 KM SOUTHWEST OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO AND ABOUT 280 NM...525 KM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO AT 22/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 16 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. GENEVIEVE CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM IN THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM W AND 45 NM E SEMICIRCLES. CONVECTION IS LIMITED IN THE SE SEMICIRCLE DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR AND THUS INTENSIFICATION WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW. MORE STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST BEYOND THE 36 HOUR TIMEFRAME. ...TROPICAL WAVES... NONE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N78W TO 11N96W TO 08N105W TO 12N115W TO 07N133W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 105W AND 110W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 93W AND 99W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N-CENTRAL ARIZONA AND COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND NRN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK SHEAR AXIS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS SHEAR AXIS SEPARATES THIS UPPER LEVEL HIGH FROM ANOTHER HIGH CENTER OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH FEATURES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 115W. THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 115W-123W AND IS ALLOWING TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO TO STEER ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NWD ALONG THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND SW CALIFORNIA STATE AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER MONSOON. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED ONCE AGAIN OVER NRN MEXICO AND ARIZONA. LARGE SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO...MIXED IN WITH SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERIC STORMS...CONTINUE TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA S OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SOME OF THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S AND SW-FACING BEACHES...FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. W OF 120W... THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA HAS MOVED WELL W OF THE AREA NEAR 16N147W 1010 MB. A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED W OF N CALIFORNIA NEAR 40N127W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS REACHING S ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N127W TO A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 25N133W CONTINUING TO 18N140W. THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 15N. $$ COBB