000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210940
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 20.1N 115.4W...OR ABOUT 350 NM SW 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 21/0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS THE EYE HAS BECOME 
CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE RESILIENT AROUND 
THE EYE...WITH NEW ACTIVITY RECENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN 50 NM OF 
THE CENTER OVER THE SAW QUADRANT. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. FAUSTO IS MOVING OVER COOLER 
WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 
HOURS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 14N100W OR ABOUT 175 NM S OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W 12 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING S FROM S/CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 04N 
ALONG 100W. THE LOW IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A CLUSTER OF DEEP 
CONVECTION DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG NE/E SHEAR EMANATING FROM SE 
MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
12.5N-17N BETWEEN 100W-103W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS 
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY 
W OR WNW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ESPECIALLY IF THE 
DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW ALONG 100W.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM  08N82W TO 07N95W TO 13N113W TO
05N125W TO 08N135W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 09N84.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S NEW MEXICO AND 
COVERS MUCH OF THE SW UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT 
FOR A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EWD NEAR THE N COAST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W. THE STEERING FLOW 
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 110W-120W AND IS ALLOWING 
HURRICANE FAUSTO TO TURN ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS FLOW 
ALSO CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER THE AREA BUT IS 
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP DURING TODAY.

LARGE 8-9 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO...MIXED IN 
WITH SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORMS...CONTINUE TO REACH 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA S OF 
CABO SAN LAZARO. SOME OF THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP 
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S AND SW-FACING 
BEACHES...FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

W OF 120W...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA IS LOCATED JUST WEST OF THE AREA 
NEAR 16.5N142W MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 
MB. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 
120 NM OF ITS CENTER. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS 
CENTERED W OF SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA NEAR 38N127W WITH A 
TRAILING TROUGH REACHING S ALONG A LINE THROUGH 32N122W TO A 
SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 23.5N131W CONTINUING TO 17N140W. 
THE AREA WEST OF 120W IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 15N.

$$
LL