000
AXPZ20 KNHC 210313
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 21 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 19.5N 114.4W...OR ABOUT 325 NM SW 
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 21/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS A WARM SPOT IN THE 
MIDDLE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST ALTHOUGH THE LAST VISIBLE 
IMAGES OF THE DAY SHOWED A RAGGED AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS BEEN QUITE RESILIENT AROUND THE EYE...WITH NEW 
ACTIVITY RECENTLY DEVELOPING WITHIN 25-45 NM OF THE CENTER. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. 
FAUSTO IS MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN 
WEAKENING WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N97W OR ABOUT 290 NM SSE OF 
ACAPULCO MEXICO...MOVING W 12 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING S FROM S/CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 05N 
ALONG 97W. THE LOW APPEARS TO LIE ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A 
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO FAIRLY STRONG NE/E SHEAR 
EMANATING FROM SE MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 97W-103W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM 
MOVES GENERALLY W OR WNW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... 
ESPECIALLY IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW ALONG 97W.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 10N84W TO 13N108W TO 06N123W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 83W-100W. 
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 110W-128W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO AND 
COVERS MUCH OF THE SW UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT 
FOR A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS EWD NEAR THE N COAST OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO...AND THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED 
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W. THE STEERING FLOW 
BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 110W-120W AND IS ALLOWING 
HURRICANE FAUSTO TO TURN ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS FLOW 
ALSO CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN 
MEXICO...ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO...BUT HAS NOW PUSHED AS FAR N 
AS NORTHERN UTAH AND WYOMING.

LARGE 8-9 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO...MIXED IN 
WITH SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORMS...CONTINUE TO REACH 
THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA S OF 
CABO SAN LAZARO. SOME OF THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE 
MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP 
CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S AND SW-FACING 
BEACHES...FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS OR SO AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

W OF 120W...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA IS LOCATED NEAR 17N140W MOVING W 
10-15 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1009 MB. THE LOW CONTINUES 
TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS CENTER. 
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED W OF SAN FRANCISCO 
CALIFORNIA NEAR 38N128W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH REACHING S TO 28N 
W OF 130W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ATTACHED TO THIS 
CIRCULATION ROUGHLY FROM 27N133W TO 13N137W. THE AREA IS 
DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A BROKEN 
STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 20N.

$$
BERG