000 AXPZ20 KNHC 202131 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 18.7N 113.4W...OR ABOUT 320 NM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 20/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO IS OBTAINING A MORE CIRCULAR APPEARANCE IN ITS CLOUD/CONVECTIVE FIELD WITH A 25-NM WIDE RAGGED AND FILLED EYE PRESENT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THE HURRICANE IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER WATERS LESS THAN 26C AND INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR MASS SO WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO. NUMEROUS MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W SEMICIRCLES. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 12N96W OR ABOUT 200 NM S OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO...MOVING W 12 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING S FROM S/CENTRAL MEXICO TO NEAR 08N ALONG 96W. THE LOW LIES ON THE EDGE OF AN AREA CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG NE/EASTERLY SHEAR...WHICH IS JUST ENOUGH TO PUSH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. SHIP LAOX5 RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS TO 33 KT ABOUT 165 NM NNW OF THE CENTER OF THE LOW...INDICATING THAT THE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING MORE VIGOROUS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 360 NM W AND NW QUADRANTS AND WITHIN 180 NM NE QUADRANT. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY W OR WNW OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...ESPECIALLY IF THE DEEP CONVECTION CAN BECOME MORE ORGANIZED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW ALONG 96W. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 10N84W TO 13N108W TO 06N123W TO 06N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM SW COSTA RICA TO 05N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 109W-126W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO AND COVERS MUCH OF THE SW UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR A CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES EWD NEAR THE N COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MAINLY DEEP-LAYERED EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE TROPICS E OF 110W. THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BETWEEN 110W-120W AND IS ALLOWING HURRICANE FAUSTO TO TURN ON A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE. THIS FLOW ALSO CONTINUES TO PULL MOISTURE NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND FEEDING THE ONGOING NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER MONSOON. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING OVER WESTERN MEXICO...ARIZONA...AND NEW MEXICO...BUT HAS PUSHED FARTHER N INTO NEVADA AND UTAH SINCE YESTERDAY. LARGE 8-10 FT SOUTHERLY SWELLS FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO...MIXED IN WITH SWELLS FROM SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE STORMS...CONTINUE TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ACAPULCO AND THE BAJA PENINSULA S OF CABO SAN LAZARO. SOME OF THESE SWELLS ARE ALSO PUSHING INTO THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON S AND SW-FACING BEACHES...FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN BEGIN TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. W OF 120W... THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA IS LOCATED NEAR 17N139W MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1010 MB. THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM OF ITS CENTER...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS W OF 140W THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE...A LARGE CUT-OFF LOW IS CENTERED W OF SAN FRANCISCO CALIFORNIA NEAR 37N128W WITH A TRAILING TROUGH REACHING JUST S OF 30N W OF 130W. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS ATTACHED TO THIS CIRCULATION ROUGHLY FROM 27N133W TO 10N137W. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS FIELD N OF 20N. $$ BERG