000
AXPZ20 KNHC 201543
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 112.5W...OR ABOUT 450 NM 
WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 20/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 11 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A RAGGED EYE REMAINS APPARENT IN SATELLITE 
IMAGERY AND IT HAS WARMED SLIGHLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. 
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WAS HIGHLY 
ASSYMETRIC MAINLY ORGANIZED IN THE S SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER...MORE 
RECENTLY THE CONVECTIVE BAND HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE N SIDE WITH 
FAUSTO APPEARING MORE SYMMETRIC. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE CENTER. 
SCATTERED MODERATE IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE CENTER. 
DESPITE ANY SHORT TERM REORGANIZATION OR POTENTIAL 
STRENGHTENING...WEAKENING WILL BE THE THEME AS SSTS ARE 
CURRENTLY MARGINAL BENEATH FAUSTO AND THEY QUICKLY COOL ALONG 
THE FORECAST TRACK.

A 1008 MB LOW...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS CENTERED 
NEAR 13N95W ABOUT 150-200 NM S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC MOVING 
W 10-15 KT. OVERALL...THE STRUCTURE OF THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED 
LITTLE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED 
NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF THE DENSE OVERCAST...DUE TO ELY SHEAR. 
HOWEVER...CONVECTION DOES APPEAR TO HAVE BUILT CLOSER TO THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 95W-100W. QSCAT RECENTLY 
PASSED OVER THE W PART OF THE SYSTEM...BUT MOST OF THE VECTORS 
ARE RAIN FLAGGED MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DECIPHER THE MAGNITUDE 
OF THE WINDS. SHIP DHLP REPORTED 28 KT ABOUT 200 NM NW OF THE 
CENTER. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 
48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY W OR WNW OFF THE COAST OF 
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W 12N91W 11N111W 07N125W 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 07N E OF 
80W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 125W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
NE TO E MID-UPPER FLOW LIES ABOVE MOST OF THE AREA ON THE S 
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. DESPITE A FAIRLY 
MOIST UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO 
HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE LOW NEAR 13N95W. SW SWELL HAS SUBSIDED 
SOME SINCE YESTERAY BUT THE NEXT SW SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO 
ENTER THIS AREA TOMORROW OR TUE.

W OF 120W...
THE REMANTS OF ELIDA IS STILL WELL DEFINED CENTERED NEAR 17N137W 
MOVING W OR JUST S OF DUE W NEAR 15 KT. CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED 
NEAR OR JUST N OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OVERNIGHT BUT MUCH OF 
THAT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING ONCE AGAIN. THE MAIN INFLUENCE OF 
THIS SYSTEM IS THE STRONG NE WINDS PRIMARILY WITHIN 300 NM N OF 
THE CENTER...DUE TO THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND A 
STRONG HIGH LOCATED WELL TO THE N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT W WITH 
THE THE REMNANT LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE W OF 140W OVER THE 
NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

ELSEWHERE...UPPER LOWS ARE LOCATED NEAR 20N124W AND 37N130W 
AND BROAD RIDGING IS IN PLACE TO THE S AND W CENTERED ROUGHLY 
NEAR 17N142W. THIS UPPER PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE SENSIBLE 
WEATHER. NE 20 WINDS WINDS AND COMBINED SEAS AROUND 8-9 FT 
DOMINATE MUCH OF THE SFC CONDITIONS N OF 18N.

$$
CANGIALOSI