000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200956
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 17.2N 111.9W...OR ABOUT 450 NM 
WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 20/0900 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. AN EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING 
WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE 
DEFINED IN THE LATEST IMAGERY. THE INFRARED SIGNATURE HAS NOT 
BEEN ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW IMAGES SHOWED A 
WELL-DEFINED BAND CURVING AROUND THE WEST AND SW QUADRANTS.  
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE 
CENTER WITH SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 
14N TO 19N BETWEEN 108W AND 114W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N92W...OR ABOUT 150 NM S OF 
SALINA CRUZ MEXICO...MOVING W AT 11 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SE MEXICO ALONG 94W N 
OF 05N. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS SOMEWHAT 
STRETCHED ESE/WNW OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH A 
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE W 
SEMICIRCLE. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINS ARE MOVING AWAY 
FROM CENTRAL AMERICA ALTHOUGH LEFTOVER SCATTERED TSTMS BETWEEN 
OVER GUATEMALA COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. 
NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OFFSHORE NORTH OF 11N  
BETWEEN 95W-99W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY W/NW OFF THE 
COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 94W.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 81W/82W N OF 05N MOVE W 15 
KT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE OVER 
THE PACIFIC REGION. SEE THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATWDAT/AXNT20 KNHC FOR DETAILS ON 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM ...06N77W TO 06N105W TO 06N125W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 02N TO 07N.
SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
AREA FROM 05.5N TO 08N FROM 120W TO 126W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE RIDGING 
WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED 
STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW 
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE 
PREVALENT OVER THE AREA EXCEPT WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE 
BAJA COAST IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SWD. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE 
FAUSTO IS BEING DRAWN NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AROUND 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS FEEDING THE NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MEXICO AND INTO 
ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO HAVE DECREASED DURING THE NIGHT BUT ARE 
EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATER TODAY.

W OF 120W...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W AND 
LIES ADJACENT TO A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES...AND A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 
10N135W. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
EXCEPT NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS BLEEDING W OF 
120W.

REMNANT OF ELIDA...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17N136W AT 
20/0900 UTC MOVING WSW 10 TO 15 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1008 MB. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT AND ARE PRIMARILY 
LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF 
BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. MODERATE DEEP CONVECTION HAS 
REDEVELOPED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE CENTER OVER THE NORTHWEST 
QUADRANT. OTHERWISE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE 
CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 140W BY SUN EVENING.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 117W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
HIGH CENTERED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 
FOR THE TROPICAL CYCLONES BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

$$
LL