000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200324
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 20 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 16.3N 111.0W...OR ABOUT 415 NM 
WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 20/0300 UTC MOVING NW AT 10 KT. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY APPEARING 
WITHIN THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST BUT HAS NOT BEEN ABLE TO 
MAINTAIN ITSELF. THE INFRARED SIGNATURE IS NOT ALL THAT 
IMPRESSIVE ALTHOUGH THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SHOWED A 
WELL-DEFINED BAND CURVING ABOUT ONE FULL REVOLUTION AROUND THE 
CDO. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 12N-18N 
BETWEEN 107W-113W.

A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N92W...OR ABOUT 140 NM SSE OF 
TAPACHULA MEXICO...MOVING W AT 11 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS SE MEXICO ALONG 92W N OF 
06N. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE SYSTEM APPEARS SOMEWHAT 
STRETCHED ESE/WNW OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO ALTHOUGH A 
WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND HAS BEEN MAINTAINED OVER THE SW/W 
QUADRANTS. THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM 
CENTRAL AMERICA ALTHOUGH LEFTOVER SCATTERED TSTMS BETWEEN 
HONDURAS AND SE MEXICO COULD STILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION OFFSHORE FROM 
12N-16N BETWEEN 94W-97W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY W/NW OFF 
THE COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 92W.

TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 80W/81W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 
KT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE OVER 
THE PACIFIC REGION. SEE THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATWDAT/AXNT20 KNHC FOR DETAILS ON 
POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 11N84W TO 14N105W TO 08N120W TO 
08N140W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 10N85W 
TO 05N97W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 118W-126W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE RIDGING 
WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED 
STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW 
OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE 
PREVALENT OVER THE AREA EXCEPT WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE 
BAJA COAST IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SWD. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE 
FAUSTO IS BEING DRAWN NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AROUND 
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS FEEDING THE NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER 
MONSOON. SCATTERED TSTMS LIE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MEXICO AND 
INTO ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO.

W OF 120W...
AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 24N124W AND 
LIES ADJACENT TO A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF THE 
UNITED STATES...AND A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N132W TO 
10N135W. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
EXCEPT NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS BLEEDING W OF 
120W.

REMNANT OF ELIDA...
THE REMNANT LOW OF T.D. ELIDA IS CENTERED NEAR 17N135W AT 
20/0300 UTC MOVING WSW 10 TO 15 KT WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 
1007 MB. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 20-25 KT AND ARE PRIMARILY 
LOCATED WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE CIRCULATION CONSISTS OF 
BROKEN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS 
MAINLY WITHIN 180 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
OF 140W BY SUN EVENING.

$$
BERG