000 AXPZ20 KNHC 192145 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 15.5N 110.2W...OR ABOUT 400 NM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/ WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO HAD A SLIGHT HICCUP IN ITS STRENGTHENING TREND EARLIER TODAY AS IT SEEMED TO BE INGESTING SOME DRIER AIR TO ITS W WHICH KEPT A DISTINCT EYE FROM FORMING. SINCE THEN...THE CONVECTIVE BAND AROUND THE E SIDE HAS CURLED AROUND THE CENTER AND A NEW BUT SOMEWHAT OBSCURED EYE HAS FORMED...AT LEAST IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED CONVECTION STRONG FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN 106W-114W. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 133.4W...OR ABOUT 1365 NM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 19/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ELIDA IS QUICKLY DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION...ONLY SHALLOW LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS WITHIN 240 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE LAST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BY NHC ON THIS SYSTEM. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W AS A REMNANT LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CROSS W OF 140W BY SUN EVENING. A 1009 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 13N91W...OR ABOUT 125 NM S OF GUATEMALA CITY GUATEMALA...MOVING W AT 12 KT. THE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS GUATEMALA AND SE MEXICO ALONG 90W/91W N OF 05N. A CONVECTIVE BAND HAS DEVELOPED AROUND THE S/SW QUADRANTS OF THE LOW WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN HONDURAS AND SE MEXICO. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOME EASTERLY SHEAR...BUT THIS IS ALSO PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE W OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION N OF 11N BETWEEN 89W-95W. HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR... GUATEMALA...AND SE MEXICO COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. IN ADDITION... CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W. TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 80W N OF 06N MOVING W 15 KT. THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC REGION. SEE THE ATLANTIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER WMO/AWIPS HEADERS MIATWDAT/AXNT20 KNHC FOR DETAILS ON POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 11N84W TO 14N105W TO 08N120W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM WESTERN PANAMA TO NICARAGUA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N OF 07N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 09N87W TO 06N98W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG FROM 04N-10N BETWEEN 117W-125W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE UNITED STATES AND NORTHERN MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR AN EMBEDDED CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE IS QUITE PREVALENT OVER THE AREA EXCEPT WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW W OF THE BAJA COAST IS ADVECTING DRIER AIR SWD. MOISTURE FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO IS BEING DRAWN NWD THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AROUND THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS FEEDING THE NORTH AMERICAN SUMMER MONSOON. SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY LIE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN MEXICO AND ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO. W OF 120W... AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEAR 25N124W AND LIES ADJACENT TO A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE W COAST OF THE UNITED STATES...AND A CUT-OFF TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N135W TO 13N132W. THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT NEAR THE ITCZ WHERE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE IS BLEEDING W OF 120W. T.D. ELIDA HAS BEEN ENVELOPED BY A STABLE AIR MASS...WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LYING N OF 20N. $$ BERG