000 AXPZ20 KNHC 191542 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 15.2N 110.0W...OR ABOUT 375 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 19/1500 UTC MOVING NW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. AN EYE-FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT AT TIMES IN SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S SEMICIRCLE. NUMEROUS MODERATE AND SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 75 NM N AND 180 NM S SEMICIRCLES. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT-TERM BEFORE FAUSTO TRACKS OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 17.8N 132.1W...OR ABOUT 1250-1300 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 19/1500 UTC MOVING W AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ELIDA HAS LOST ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION AND IS ON ITS WAY TO BE A REMNANT LOW...WHICH COULD BE DECLARED LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS CAUSING AN INCREASE IN NE TRADES N OF THE CIRCULATION. A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE THAT SHOWED SIGNS OF DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN A FEW DAYS AGO HAS MOVED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EMERGED INTO THE EPAC ALONG 90W MOVING W ABOUT 10 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N/13N. A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EVIDENT IN EARLY MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY AND IT FITS A PAIR OF SHIP OBS AT 12Z. THE WESTERN-MORE SHIP (OUSH2) LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM WNW OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20 KT NW WINDS AND THIS WAS USED TO OUTLINE THE WIND FIELD IN THE HSF PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM W OF THE CENTER. SOME OF THIS IS OVER S PORTIONS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA AND S MEXICO AND THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... .NONE. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N85W 10N105W 08N114W 10N125W 07N132W 05N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N AND 240 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 116W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... E OF 120W... BESIDES FOR HURRICANE FAUSTO AND THE LOW S OF EL SALVADOR/ GUATEMALA...CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA JUST S OF THE ITCZ AXIS DRIVEN BY NE UPPER FLOW. OTHERWISE...SW SWELL OF 13-15 SECONDS IS ELEVATED SEAS TO 8-10 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT FOR THE LEE OF THE GALAPAGOS ISLANDS. THIS SWELL TRAIN HAS ALREADY REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO...WITH THE NEXT EVENT EXPECTED TO PRESS INTO THE REGION LATE SUN. W OF 120W... FAIRLY COMPLEX BUT BENIGN MID TO UPPER PATTERN LIES OVER THE REGION. WV IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR...SOME OF WHICH IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO WEAKENING ELIDA. AT THE SFC...TIGHTENED PRES PATTERN BETWEEN T.D. ELIDA AND STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF THE ZONE IS PRODUCING NE FLOW NEAR 20 KT OVER THE NW PART OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE. THIS WILL BASICALLY SHIFT W WITH THE REMNANTS OF ELIDA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. $$ CANGIALOSI