000
AXPZ20 KNHC 190955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 14.8N 109.4W...OR 390 NM SW OF 
MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING WNW AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IF 980 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO IS EMBEDDED 
BENEATH A CENTRAL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL SPIRAL 
BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS 
EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM AND IMPROVING TO 
THE N. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM SE AND 
50 NM NW SEMICIRCLES.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 18.1N 131.1W...OR 1200 
NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 19/0900 UTC MOVING W AT 12 
KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS 
WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER OF ELIDA...BUT 
IS SHRINKING IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88.5W N OF 05N MOVING W 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW 
IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN EL SALVADOR NEAR 
13.5N89W BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND BROAD 
CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS 
NORTH OF 10N.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 06.5N77W TO 06N95W TO 08N110W TO 
08N120W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE 
ARA FROM 06.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 116W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 115W...OUTSIDE OF THE AREA AFFECTED BY ELIDA AND SOME ITCZ 
CONVECTION...THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW.

E OF 115W NORTH OF THE ITCZ THE AREA IS MOIST IN THE MIDDLE AND 
UPPER LEVELS WITH AREAS OF MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME EMBEDDED 
CONVECTION.

A RATHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED WELL NORTHWEST OF THE 
AREA WITH MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF ELIDA.

$$
LL