000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190326 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC SAT JUL 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 109.0W...OR 390 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IF 985 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF FAUSTO IS EMBEDDED BENEATH A CENTRAL CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH SEVERAL SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STORM AND STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE N. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 210 NM S AND 150 NM N SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 09N-16N BETWEEN 102W-107W. TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 18.2N 129.9W...OR 1160 NM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 19/0300 UTC MOVING W AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE CENTER OF ELIDA...BUT IS SHRINKING IN SIZE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM NW AND 45 NM SE SEMICIRCLES. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 87W N OF 09N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 13N BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION LIES OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 88W-91W. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN WESTERN PANAMA AND SE MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 12N86W TO 13N103W TO 08N110W TO 10N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 80W-96W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 118W-123W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... BROAD-SCALE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO 18N140W WITH ONE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N123W. THE RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BY SEVERAL UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH LIES JUST OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SW OF THE UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LOW BORDERS THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR 27N136W AND IS ALSO HELPING TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NWD...FROM T.S. ELIDA...ALTHOUGH THE PLUME IS NOT AS PROLIFIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES W OF 132W...OR JUST AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PATH OF ELIDA. E OF 110W... HURRICANE FAUSTO IS BEGINNING TO DICTATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE AREA SW OF THE MEXICAN RIVIERA AS OUTFLOW EXPANDS TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE N WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING DOWN THE MEXICAN LANDMASS ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR S TEXAS. FARTHER E...NE/E FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD TO 100W WITH A PATCH OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA POISED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W. $$ BERG