000 AXPZ20 KNHC 182136 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2205 UTC FRI JUL 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 14.1N 108.4W...OR 380 NM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO...AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING WNW AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IF 987 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO HAS BEEN SHOWING HINTS OF AN EYE...PRODUCED BY THE COILING OF A LONG CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE SE SEMICIRCLE AROUND THE N SIDE INTO THE CORE OF THE STORM. IN ADDITION...A NEW SPIRAL BAND APPEARS TO BE TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NW SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE STORM AND SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE N. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM SE AND 180 NM NW SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 101W-109W. TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 18.0N 128.7W...OR 1095 NM WSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO...AT 18/2100 UTC MOVING W AT 13 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS DIMINISHED TO 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/ WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ELIDA IS MOVING DEEPER INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IS WEAKENING QUICKLY WITH ONLY ONE BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION LEFT NEAR THE CENTER. DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SE SIDE OF THE STORM...HASTENING ITS DEMISE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NW SEMICIRCLE. ...TROPICAL WAVE... TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 86W/87W N OF 09N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1007 MB LOW IS LOCATED ALONG THE WAVE OVER SOUTHERN HONDURAS NEAR 14N BASED ON A BLEND OF SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 86W-89W. OTHER SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LIE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN NICARAGUA AND SE MEXICO. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM 12N86W TO 13N103W TO 08N110W TO 10N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 82W-90W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 119W-136W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... BROAD-SCALE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW MEXICO TO 18N140W WITH ONE MAIN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N124W. THE RIDGE IS INTERRUPTED BY SEVERAL UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH LIES JUST OFF THE W COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND IS HELPING TO DRAW MOISTURE NWD FROM HURRICANE FAUSTO THROUGH THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE DESERT SW OF THE UNITED STATES. AN UPPER LOW BORDERS THE W SIDE OF THE RIDGE NEAR 26N136W AND IS ALSO HELPING TO DRAW SOME MOISTURE NWD...THIS FROM T.S. ELIDA...ALTHOUGH THE PLUME IS NOT AS PROLIFIC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE LIES W OF 132W...OR JUST AHEAD IN THE FORECAST PATH OF ELIDA. E OF 110W... HURRICANE FAUSTO IS BEGINNING TO DICTATE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IN THE AREA SW OF THE MEXICAN RIVIERA AS OUTFLOW EXPANDS TO THE S OF THE SYSTEM. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE OUTFLOW IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE N WHERE NORTHERLY FLOW IS MOVING DOWN THE MEXICAN LANDMASS ON THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR S TEXAS. FARTHER E...NE/E FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD TO 100W WITH A PATCH OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA POISED TO MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W. $$ BERG