000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181556
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FAUSTO CENTERED NEAR 13.6N 108.0W AT 18/1500 UTC 
MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FAUSTO EXHIBITS 
WELL-DEFINED BANDING FEATURES AND THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY 
INDICATES AN EYE MAY BE FORMING. THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 17.6N 127.3W AT 18/1500 UTC 
MOVING W AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. A SMALL AREA OF MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED NEAR THE STORM CENTER.

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 86W N OF 09N INTO CENTRAL AMERICA IS MOVING 
W 10 TO 15 KT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW 
COVERS CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 08N AND CONTINUE OFFSHORE OVER THE 
PACIFIC N OF 08N E OF 92W.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N78W TO 07N90W TO 10N102W TO 08N120W TO 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
LOCATED WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF A 11N122W TO 09N126W LINE.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 100W...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERING A LARGE 
PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
LOCATED ALONG AND OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST EXTENDS S TO 28N E OF 
125W INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH THE AXIS ALONG 120W. AT THE 
SURFACE NE WINDS TO 20 KT ARE FORECAST N OF A LINE FROM 30N120W 
TO 20N140W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 10 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF ABOUT 
10N BETWEEN 100W AND 125W.

E OF 100W...
OVER THE E PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA E TO NE WINDS ALOFT COVER 
MOST OF THE AREA E OF 100W WITH SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS 
INDICATING SPEEDS IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. SOUTHERLY SWELLS TO 
10 FEET ARE LOCATED S OF ABOUT 10N BETWEEN 92W AND 100W.

$$
CAB