000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180951
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AT 13.3N 106.8W MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 
10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 GUSTS TO 75 KT AND 
MINIMUM PRES OF 993 MB.  FAUSTO CONTINUES ITS PATH AROUND SW 
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND ARIZONA. WEAK 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING W JUST AHEAD OF FAUSTO 
ALLOWING DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION IN 
SPITE OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASED BY ELIDA'S PREVIOUS 
PATH.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM SE AND 90 NM NW 
SEMICIRCLES.  FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNDER LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM ARIZONA ANTICYCLONE 
AND REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. FAUSTO IS FORECAST TO 
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ONCE THE FAVORABLE UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT DIMINISHES...THE COOL SST UNDER FAUSTO SHOULD START 
INFLUENCING ITS WEAKENING. 

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 17.5N 125.9W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 11 
KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 55 GUSTS TO 65 KT AND MINIMUM 
PRES OF 994 MB.  ELIDA MAINTAINS A WLY COURSE DRIVEN BY RIDGE 
WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.  SOME WEAKENING OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION IS NOTED.  ELIDA MOVING OVER COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE TAKING A TOLL IN ITS INTENSITY. 

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W TO 9N105W TO 11N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
09N TO 10.5N FROM 119W TO 124W.

OTHER CONVECTION IS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN THE AREA 
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 09N87W TO 13N90W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE 
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES.  EXCEPT FOR THE TWO TROPICAL SYSTEMS 
THE AREA IS DRY IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WEST OF 95W. AN 
AREA OF CONVECTION AND MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ 
EAST OF 95W.

LARGE SWELLS FROM STRONG STORM IN S PAC EXTEND ACROSS EQUATOR 
AND TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WRN COAST.  BREAKERS AS LARGE AS 8-9 
FT EXPECTED TO IMPACT SHORE AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL N OF AREA AND LOW PRES 1010 OVER 
CALIFORNIA DEVELOPING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KNOTS RANGE N OF 30N.

$$
LL