000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180354
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 17 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURCN ELIDA AT 17.3N 124.6W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 65 GUSTS TO 75 KT AND MINIMUM PRES OF 
987 MB.  HURRICANE MAINTAINS A WLY COURSE DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE OVER ARIZONA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE NOW FROM 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ENHANCED DIFFLUENT PATTERN 
PREVIOUSLY.  SOME WEAKENING SHEAR ON SRN HALF OF SYSTEM 
MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER BUT DOWNWARD 
...HOPEFULLY IRREVERSIBLE...TREND HAS STARTED.  ELIDA ALREADY 
MOVING OVER COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE TAKING A 
TOLL IN ITS INTENSITY. 

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AT 13.0N 105.9W MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 
10 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 GUSTS TO 70 KT AND 
MINIMUM PRES OF 994 MB.  FAUSTO CONTINUES ITS PATH AROUND SW 
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE SITTING OVER ARIZONA.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING W JUST AHEAD OF FAUSTO ALLOWING 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION IN SPITE OF 
LOWER THAN EXPECTED SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO ELIDA'S PREVIOUS 
PATH.  NUMEROUS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N AND 
S QUADRANTS.  FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN UNDER LIGHT 
TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM ARIZONA ANTICYCLONE 
AND REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  ONCE THE FAVORABLE 
UPPER ENVIRONMENT DIMINISHES...THE COOL SST UNDER FAUSTO SHOULD 
START INFLUENCING ITS WEAKENING. 

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N83W TO 07N91W TO 12N99W TO 10N112W TO 10N135W 
TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 91W.

...DISCUSSION...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SRN ARIZONA AND EXTENDING 
TO SECOND ANTICYCLONE AT 23N120W DRIVING FAUSTO W-NW.  WEAK 
TROUGH ALOFT JUST AHEAD OF FAUSTO HAS DIMINISHED RIDGE ELY SHEAR 
ALLOWING TROPICAL CYCLONE TO INTENSIFY AND VERY LIKELY CONTINUE 
SO AS TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING W WITH CYCLONE.  OTHERWISE  
AIR MASS REMAINS VERY DRY W OF 124W.  SECOND RIDGE...THIS ONE 
OVER WRN CARIBBEAN...ADVECTING PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO 
E PAC SUPPLYING AN ENDLESS ARRAY OF TROPICAL WAVES AND SURFACE 
LOW PRES SYSTEMS ENTERING E PAC ALONG ITCZ LATITUDES.  

LARGE SWELLS FROM STRONG STORM IN S PAC CROSSED EQUATOR AND HEAD 
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA WRN COAST.  BREAKERS AS LARGE AS 8-9 FT 
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SHORE AS EARLY AS FRI MORNING.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1033 MB WELL N OF AREA AND LOW PRES 1010 OVER 
CALIFORNIA DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N AND PRODUCING 
LARGE N SWELLS ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA N OF 28N. 

$$
WALLY BARNES