000
AXPZ20 KNHC 172159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURCN ELIDA AT 17.2N 123.3W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 13 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 70 GUSTS TO 85 KT AND MINIMUM PRES OF 
980 MB.  HURRICANE MAINTAINS A WLY COURSE DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYERED 
ANTICYCLONE OVER ARIZONA WITH NO SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE NOW FROM 
THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCING FAUSTO.  SOME WEAKENING 
SHEAR ON SRN HALF OF SYSTEM MAINTAINS DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN 
1870 NM OF CENTER BUT DOWNWARD...HOPEFULLY IRREVERSIBLE...TREND
HAS STARTED.  ELIDA ALREADY MOVING OVER COOL SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES...WHICH ARE TAKING ITS TOLL IN ITS INTENSITY. 

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO NEAR 12.8N 105.1W MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG 
AT 13 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND OF 50 GUSTING TO 60 KT AND 
MINIMUM PRES OF 998 MB.  FAUSTO CONTINUES ITS PATH AROUND SW 
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE SITTING OVER ARIZONA.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH HAS BEEN DRIFTING W JUST AHEAD OF FAUSTOS ALLOWING 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION IN SPITE OF 
LOWER THAN EXPECTED SES SURFACE TEMPERATURES DUE TO ELIDA'S 
PREVIOUS PATH.  NUMEROUS SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM N AND S QUADRANTS.  FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN UNDER LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR AS IT PULLS AWAY 
FROM ARIZONA ANTICYCLONE AND REMAINS UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT.  ONCE THE FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT DIMINISHES...THE 
COOL SST UNDER FAUSTO SHOULD START INFLUENCING ITS WEAKENING. 

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
.NONE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N79W TO 07N92W TO 11N99W TO 07N115W TO 10N128W 
TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS 
E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL LARGE GALE AND STORM SYSTEMS IN THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL GENERATING LONG 
PERIOD SW SWELL. THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF SWELL 
TRAINS IS SPREADING OVER THE SE PACIFIC AND IS ALREADY CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR AND REACHING THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS. MODEL 
GUIDANCE SHOWS 8 TO 11 FT S TO SW SWELL ENGULFING MUCH OF THE 
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC E OF 120W LATER TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE 
RESULT WILL BE DRAMATICALLY BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE WESTERN 
COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE 
EXPECTED. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO PEAK LATE FRI AND ONLY SLOWLY 
SUBSIDE SAT AND SUN.

ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF A YEAR...AN ELONGATED MID- 
TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN 
MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN NE PACIFIC TO NEAR 31N145W. 
HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ALONG 146W IS 
FORECAST TO DIG OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND AND 
RETARD THE RIDGE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF 
THE TROUGH HOVERING NEAR THE U.S. W COAST SHOULD CAUSE STRONG 
WINDS SHOULD TO DEVELOP NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA 
COAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN BORDER TO ABOUT 132W SAT AND SUN.

$$
WALLY BARNES