000 AXPZ20 KNHC 171550 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURCN ELIDA IS NEAR 17.1N 122.2W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 14 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 KT GUSTING TO 105 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 974 MB. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED STRAIGHT TOWARD THE W BY A DEEP-LAYERED ANTICYCLONE EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MEXICO WELL W INTO THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A TROPICAL CYCLONE UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF NOTICEABLE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES. THE CURRENT ASYMMETRIES...WITH STRONG BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND S OF THE CENTER AND WEAKER CONVECTION TO THE N MATCHES WHAT LATEST CIMSS ESTIMATE OF NE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF ABOUT 10 KT. MORE SPECIFICALLY....NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 120 NM S SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 75 NM N SEMICIRCLE. ELIDA IS ALREADY TRAVERSING SUB-80F SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH LIKELY ARE ALREADY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE STORM. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE STORM TRACKS OVER 24-25C. TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO NEAR 11.6N 104.1W MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT GUSTING TO 65 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 998 MB. FIRST VISIBLE PICTURES THIS MORNING SHOW THE CENTER OF FAUST ON THE TIP OF A TIGHTLY-COILED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPED NEARLY THE FULL DISTANCE AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE IS INDICATIVE OF MODEST NE SHEAR ...WHICH AGREES WELL WITH CIMSS ANALYSES OF ENE TO NE SHEAR OF 15 KT. NUMEROUS SCATTERED SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM E AND 270 NM W SEMICIRCLES. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...FAUSTO SHOULD CONTINUE ON A W TO WNW HEADING OVER WARM WATERS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE ENE TO NE SHEAR. GIVEN THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 24 HOURS...WITH FAUSTO EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THAT OF BORIS AND ELIDA. DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT FAUSTO MAY CROSS OVER THE COOL WAKE LEFT BY PREVIOUS STORMS WHICH HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE REGION. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 83W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST INCREASING ORGANIZATION TO THIS SYSTEM DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS...THOUGH IT IS ON THE VERGE OF MOVING OVER LAND. NO MATTER WHETHER IT DEVELOPS OR NOT...A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN SPREADING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...SOME GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC...IN A MANNER SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE LAST SEVERAL STORMS. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 08N80W TO 07N87W TO 10N95W TO 11N104W TO 09N111W TO 10N129W TO 07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 81W AND 94W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 126W. ...DISCUSSION... SEVERAL LARGE GALE AND STORM SYSTEMS IN THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL GENERATING LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF SWELL TRAINS IS SPREADING OVER THE SE PACIFIC AND IS ALREADY CROSSING THE EQUATOR AND REACHING THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WATERS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 8 TO 11 FT S TO SW SWELL ENGULFING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC E OF 120W LATER TODAY THROUGH FRI. THE RESULT WILL BE DRAMATICALLY BUILDING SEAS ALONG THE WESTERN COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA...WHERE 8 TO 10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO PEAK LATE FRI AND ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE SAT AND SUN. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF A YEAR...AN ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN NE PACIFIC TO NEAR 31N145W. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NW OF THE AREA ALONG 146W IS FORECAST TO DIG OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND AND RETARD THE RIDGE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THE PRESENCE OF THE TROUGH HOVERING NEAR THE U.S. W COAST SHOULD CAUSE STRONG WINDS SHOULD TO DEVELOP NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 OR 9 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER TO ABOUT 132W SAT AND SUN. $$ KIMBERLAIN