000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURCN ELIDA IS NEAR 17.5N 120.7W AT 974 MB MOVING W OR 280 DEG 
AT 12 KT UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE N. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE NW 
AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. UPPER LEVEL 
OUTFLOW IS NEARLY CONCENTRIC AND IS THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS. ELIDA IS MOVING ACROSS COOLER 
SURFACE WATERS WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND EXPECTED.

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO NEAR 11.4N 103.4W 998 MB AND MOVING W OR 
270 DEG AT 14 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 240 
NM OVER THE NW AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLES OF ITS 
CENTER. FAUSTO WILL TRACK W BENEATH A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE TO THE 
N...AND TRACK OVER WARM SURFACE WATERS...SO A GRADUAL 
STRENGTHENING TREND TO A HURRICANE IS FORECAST. 

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A TROPICAL WAVE N OF 03N ALONG 81W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 17 
KT FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN ABOUT 30 
NM OF ITS AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC WATERS.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG FROM 08N81W TO 07N87W TO 12N103W TO 
08N140. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED N 
OF 07N TO THE E OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 08N97W TO 06N110W 
TO 09N120W TO 08N135W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 31N138W WITH A SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE EXTENDING E TO NEAR 32N128W WHERE IT IS COLLAPSING SE. AN 
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH CYCLONES AT 33N120W AND 23N132W AND 
18N143W. DRY UPPER AIR IS INDICATED N OF 12N W OF 127W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 32N106W WITH ITS RIDGE 
DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 20N BETWEEN 100W AND 120W. AS MENTIONED 
ABOVE...UPPER E WINDS S OF THIS RIDGE IS PUSHING BOTH HURCN 
ELIDA AND TS FAUSTO WESTWARD. 

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N90W TO 08N93W WITH DRY UPPER AIR 
OBSERVED ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE PACIFIC. AN UPPER RIDGE 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE CARIBBEAN 
ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 81W. NOTE THAT THE SAME RIDGE IS 
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E 
CARIBBEAN.  

SOUTHERLY SWELLS 8 TO 11 FT HAVE CROSSED THE EQUATOR. THEY AREA 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE N COVERING THE ENTIRE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 
78W AND 120W BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
NELSON