000
AXPZ20 KNHC 162223
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURCN ELIDA AT 17.0N 117.8W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 12 KT WITH 
MAXIMUM WIND OF 90 GUSTS TO 110 KT AND MINIMUM PRES OF 970 MB. 
HURCN CONTINUES ITS WLY COURSE DRIVEN BY DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE 
INTERRUPTED BY WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N121W TO 18N126W.
TROUGH CREATING FAVORABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT BY DIMINISHING ELY 
SHEAR...FORMING SMALL AREA OF DIFFLUENT FLOW AND DRIFT IT W 
ALONG WITH ELIDA...FURTHER ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION AND HELPING 
INTENSIFY HURCN.  ELIDA DRAWING MOISTURE FROM ITCZ DEBRIS TO 
COUNTER THE OTHERWISE DRY AIR MASS IT IS HEADING INTO.  
CONVECTION DECREASING ON WRN SIDE WHILE CONTINUES TO INCREASE ON 
ERN SIDE.  COOLER WATERS ARE AHEAD IN ELIDA'S PATH AND UPPER 
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE ADVERSE TO SYSTEM.  IT 
IS ESTIMATED THAT ELIDA IS REACHING ITS PEAK AND WEAKENING IS 
EXPECTED ANYTIME SOON. 

TROPICAL STORM FAUSTO AT 11.3N 99.7W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 14 
KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 GUSTS TO 45 KT AND MINIMUM 
PRES OF 1004 MB.  FAUST IS FOLLOWING ELIDA'S PREVIOUS PATH 
PULLING AWAY FROM ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT AND EXPECTED TO 
INTENSIFY PROGRESSIVELY THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WHILE CONTINUING
IN WLY COURSE.  CONVECTION HAS INCREASED WITH UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT FLOW AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS W-NW PATH.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
NONE.
 
...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 07N78W TO 05N86W TO 11N97W TO 08N112W TO 09N127W TO 
06N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
OF AXIS E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 45 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 107W-115W.

...DISCUSSION...
WELL ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 29N135W MAINTAINS WELL DRIED AIR 
MASS N OF ITCZ AND W OF 121W.  WEAK AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH DRIFTING W JUST AHEAD OF ELIDA INCHING A TOUCH OF 
MOISTURE W OF 120W.  SECOND ANTICYCLONE OVER SW CONUS PROVIDES 
ELY FLOW ON ITS SRN PERIPHERY TO ADVECT PLENTY OF TROPICAL 
MOISTURE INTO EPAC AT THE ITCZ LATITUDE AND INTO T.S. FAUSTO 
ENHANCING THEIR CONVECTION.  

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...SWELLS CAUSED BY MAJOR STORM S OF 
EQUATOR HAVE CROSSED N AND HEADED FOR THE CENTRAL AMERICA 
COAST.  SEAS AS HIGH AS 15 FT NOW APPROACHING NRN LATITUDES 
SHOULD BY IMPACTING COASTS WITHIN NEXT 48 HR WITH 8-9 FT 
BREAKERS...ACCORDING TO NOAA WAVEWATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE.

TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1033 MB HIGH PRES WELL N OF AREA AND 
1009 MB LOW PRES OVER CALIFORNIA DRIVING STRONG NLY WIND ALONG 
COAST WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY SPILL S OF 32N GRADUALLY BUILDING 
SEAS TO 8-9 FT LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

$$
WALLY BARNES