000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161559 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED JUL 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURCN ELIDA IS NEAR 16.7N 116.8W IS MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75 KT GUSTS TO 90 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 980 MB. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY A DEEP-LAYERED ANTICYCLONE HOVERING WELL TO THE NE OVER THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. LATEST CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSES SUGGEST NE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 10 KT OVER ELIDA...BUT CURRENT CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRIES DO NOT AGREE WELL WITH THESE DATA. EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA REVEALED A COMPLETE EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE CENTER...THOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CANOPY OF CIRRUS OBSCURING THIS FEATURE. MORE RECENT PICTURES SHOW THE BEGINNINGS OF A RAGGED... BANDING-TYPE EYE...POSSIBLY INDICATIVE OF NEW INTENSIFICATION TREND. NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN 150 NM E AND 90 NM W OF CENTER. ALTHOUGH ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD NOT CHANGE MUCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ELIDA IS EXPECTED TO REACH SUB-80 F OCEAN TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7-E NEAR 11.0N 96.9W IS MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 11 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 KT GUSTING TO 40 KT AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TIGHT BALL OF CONVECTION ROUGHLY 150 NM WIDE NEAR OR W OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...ACCOMPANIED BY SEVERAL TIGHTLY COILED BANDS SPIRALING WITHIN 440 NM OF THE W SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH STILL IN ITS INFANCY...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND A HURRICANE BY LATE THIS WEEK AS IT MOVES ON A GENERAL WNW TRACK. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 75W MOVING W AT 15 KT AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AND ULTIMATELY MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS BY LATE THIS WEEK. SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT...SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL SYSTEMS WHICH HAVE TRAVERSED THE REGION. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 10N96W TO 08N111W TO 10N130W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 111W AND 115W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 210 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 78W AND 90W. ...DISCUSSION... SEVERAL LARGE STORM SYSTEMS IN THE MID-LATITUDES OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE HAVE BEEN AND ARE STILL GENERATING LONG PERIOD SW SWELL. THE FIRST IN WHAT COULD BE A SERIES OF SWELL TRAINS IS NOW ARRIVING OVER THE SE PACIFIC AND SHOULD BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE THE EAST PACIFIC WATERS BEGINNING LATER TODAY AND THU. IN FACT...NOAA WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS 8 TO 11 FT SW SWELL CROSSING THE EQUATOR EARLY THU MORNING...WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS DRAMATICALLY BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT ALONG THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS LATE FRI AND SAT. ELSEWHERE...TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF A YEAR...AN ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO WESTWARD INTO THE OPEN NE PACIFIC TO NEAR 31N147W. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH N OF THE AREA ALONG 150W IS FORECAST TO DIG OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST THIS WEEKEND. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BORDER TO ABOUT 129W SAT AND SUN. $$ KIMBERLAIN