000 AXPZ20 KNHC 160958 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC WED JUL 16 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... HURCN ELIDA IS NEAR 16.5N 115.5W AT 980 MB MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 11 KT UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF CENTER. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NEARLY CONCENTRIC AND IS THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND ASSOCIATED SEAS. THE FORECAST IS FOR ELIDA TO REMAIN A HURCN FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS THEN ELIDA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7-E NEAR 10.1N 95.3W 1006 MB IS MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 08 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 45 NM OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 210 NM OF CENTER OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING W UNDER A LARGE UPPER RIDGE AND IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN POSSIBLY BECOMING A MINIMAL HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND. ...TROPICAL WAVE... A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 72W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT ABOUT 17 KT AND IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER COLOMBIA. THIS WAVE SHOULD MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC WATERS ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 03N ALONG 102W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 15 KT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS AT 13N. ONLY A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF ITCZ CONVECTION IS NOTED AT 06N. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ALONG FROM 08N80W TO 08N118W TO 11N132W TO 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 103W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 30 NM OF 08.5N109.5W AND ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF 08.5N122.5W AND ALSO WITHIN 15 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 09N130W TO 07N140W. ...DISCUSSION... AN UPPER CYCLONE IS JUST W OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 22N151W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 37N119W WITH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING SW ALONG 29N130W TO A CREST W OF THE AREA NEAR 27N148W. TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH HAS FORMED FROM 16N134 TO 25N136W. EVER FURTHER S...A TROPICAL ANTICYCLONE IS DEVELOPING AT 13N129W WITH ITS ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION TAPPING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 128W AND 138W AND ADVECTING THE MOISTURE N TO NEAR 16N133W WHERE IT QUICKLY EVAPORATES. FURTHER E AND TO THE S OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AN UPPER CYCLONE IS BECOMING STATIONARY AND BEGINNING TO FILL NEAR 26N121W...BUT IS STILL ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM OF ITS CENTER. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF THE ITCZ TO THE W OF 121W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 07N137W TO 18N132W AND WEAK RIDGING EXTENDS SE OVER THE SUBTROPICS W OF 120W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 34N107W WITH ITS RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 120W. THE UPPER EASTERLIES S OF THIS RIDGE IS PUSHING BOTH HURCN ELIDA AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7-E WESTWARD. FURTHER TO THE S...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TROPICAL STORM BERTHA...LOCATED N OF BERMUDA...SW ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND HONDURAS INTO THE E PACIFIC TO A BASE NEAR 11N91W. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITS AXIS. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS LOCATED S OF THIS TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS COSTA RICA. THE RESULT IS NE TO E FLOW ALOFT OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 110W...WHICH IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM THE TD 7-E AND THE ITCZ CONVECTION S ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 120W. SOUTHERLY SWELLS 8 TO 11 FT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE EQUATOR LATER TODAY REACHING TO ALONG S OF 07N BETWEEN 92W AND 122W TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA LATE FRI. $$ NELSON