000
AXPZ20 KNHC 160335
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED JUL 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ELIDA AT 16.4N114.2W AT 0300 WITH CENTRAL PRES 986 MB 
MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 10 KT.  ELIDA COMING INTO SMALL AREA OF  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN N AND W 
QUADRANTS WHERE ELY SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED.  ELIDA SHOULD CONTINUE 
ITS WLY TRACK TAKING IT INTO COOLER WATERS WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
MASS WHICH SHOULD COMMENCE ITS WEAKENING WITHIN 36 HR.

LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 10N94W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  BURST OF 
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND LOW PRES CENTER 
POSSIBLY INDICATING DIMINISH SHEAR ALOFT AND ONSET OF ITS 
INTENSIFICATION INTO POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 24-36 
HR.  EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON W TRACK AT 10 KT BEFORE TAKING 
SLIGHTLY MORE NWLY TURN.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 101W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  WAVE LIES 
ON W EDGE OF BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM 
NEAR 10N94W.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG PORTION OF WAVE 
AXIS INTERSECTING ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N81W TO 09N84W TO 10N90W TO 07N113W TO 09N130W 
TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 104W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER E PAC EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW 
DAYS...KEEPING ELIDA AND LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 10N94W ON DUE W 
COURSE.  SUBSIDENCE PRESIDES OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA N OF 
ITCZ W OF 120W AS RESULT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER 
RIDGE.  WEAK UPPER STATIONARY TROUGH FROM 32N117W TO 20N124W 
PROVIDING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN EDGE OF ELIDA 
ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OUT OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH WITHIN 12 HR.

STRONG S PAC STORM AT S OF EQUATOR WILL PROMPT LARGE LONG PERIOD 
SWELL ACROSS EQUATOR AND LIKELY REACH COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES