000
AXPZ20 KNHC 152231
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
HURRICANE ELIDA AT 16.5N113.3W AT 2100 WITH CENTRAL PRES 986 MB 
MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT.  ELIDA COMING INTO SMALL AREA OF  
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ENHANCING DEEP CONVECTION IN N 
AND W QUADRANTS WHERE ELY SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED.  ELIDA SHOULD 
CONTINUE ITS WLY TRACK TAKING IT INTO COOLER WATERS WITH DRY 
STABLE AIR MASS WHICH SHOULD COMMENCE ITS WEAKENING WITHIN 36 HR.

LOW PRES 1009 MB AT 09N94W MOVING W AT 10 KT.  BURST OF 
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED AROUND LOW PRES CENTER 
POSSIBLY INDICATING DIMINISH SHEAR ALOFT AND THE ONSET OF 
INTENSIFICATION INTO A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN NEXT 
24-36 HR.  EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON W TRACK AT 10 KT BEFORE 
TAKING SLIGHTLY MORE NWLY TURN.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 05N MOVING W AT 15 KT.  WAVE LIES 
ON W EDGE OF BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRES SYSTEM 
NEAR 09N94W.  SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG PORTION OF WAVE 
AXIS INTERSECTING ITCZ. 

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 07N81W TO 07N85W TO 09N91W TO 06N107W TO 08N114W 
TO 08N125W TO 09N131W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM S OF AXIS E OF 101W AND WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS W OF 108W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER E PAC EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEXT FEW 
DAYS...KEEPING ELIDA AND LOW PRES SYSTEM AT 09N94W ON DUE W 
COURSE.  SUBSIDENCE PRESIDES OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA N OF 
ITCZ W OF 119W AS RESULT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE UNDER 
RIDGE.  WEAK UPPER STATIONARY TROUGH FROM 32N119W TO 20N122W 
PROVIDING MODERATE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER WRN EDGE OF ELIDA 
ENHANCING ITS CONVECTION.

MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS OUT OF GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH WITHIN 18 HR.

STRONG S PAC STORM AT S OF EQUATOR WILL PROMPT LARGE LONG PERIOD 
SWELL ACROSS EQUATOR AND LIKELY REACH COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
FRI.

$$
WALLY BARNES