000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151554
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ELIDA IS NEAR 16N112W AT 981 MB MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 
OR 280 DEG AT 10 KT.  THE W EDGE OF ELIDA IS UNDER A REGION OF 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE THAT IS ASSISTING WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF 
CONVECTION.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND WITHIN 150 
NM OF THE CENTER ON THE W SEMICIRCLE AS THE SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING 
EASTERLY SHEAR.  ELIDA IS BEING STEERED W ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE 
OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 
COLDER WATER AND WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY WED 
EVENING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 09N94W IS MOVING W AT 
APPROXIMATELY 10 KT.  SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION CAN 
BE FOUND WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER ON THE W SEMICIRCLE. THIS 
LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W TRACK AT 10 KT FOR THE NEXT 
DAY OR SO BEFORE TAKING A SLIGHTLY MORE N TURN.  THERE IS A 
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS CYCLONE MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 99W S OF 18N IS MOVING W AT 15 KT.  THE 
WAVE LIES ON THE W EDGE OF THE BROAD CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR 09N94W.  CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE 
IS SCATTERED BUT STRONG ALONG THE PORTION OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 
12N AND S OF 09N. 

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE FROM 08N TO 10N TO THE E OF 
140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 175 NM OF LINE FROM 09N78W TO 10N91W TO 09N107W AND THEN 
THE CONVECTION NARROWS TO WITHIN ROUGHLY 75 NM LINE FROM 08N113W 
TO 08N136W. 

...DISCUSSION...

DESPITE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVEL RIDGING NEAR 
30N130W...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED 
TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...KEEPING T.S. ELIDA AND 
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NEAR 09N94W ON NEARLY W 
TRACKS.  SUBSIDENCE PRESIDES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA N OF 
15N AND W OF 125W AS A RESULT THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  AN UPPER 
TROUGH ON THE W EDGE OF THE RIDGE ANCHORED ALONG 150W SHOULD 
REMAIN STATIONARY.

THE CONVECTION NOTED NEAR THE SW COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL 
SALVADOR IS DIMINISHING AND TRACKING TO THE W.  THIS CONVECTIONS 
APPEARS TO BE ON THE FAR E EDGE OF THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS MIGRATING W.  THE 
CONVECTION NEAR THE ISLAS MARIAS IS ALSO DIMINISHING AT THIS 
TIME...BUT A REGION OF ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES 
CURRENTLY IN THIS AREA SHOULD SURGE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE GULF 
OF CALIFORNIA TOWARD THE SW CONUS TODAY...PROPELLED BY THE S 
FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HURRICANE ELIDA.  

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KT CAN BE FOUND DOWNWIND OF THE GULF OF 
PAPAGAYO...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO.

A STRONG SOUTH PACIFIC STORM CENTERED NEAR 50S83W WILL SEND A 
LONG PERIOD SWELL ACROSS THE EQUATOR WED AND LIKELY REACH THE 
COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA FRI.

$$
SCHAUER CLARK