000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151000
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE ELIDA IS NEAR 16.2N 111.3W AT 981 MB MOVING W OR 275 
DEG AT 10 KT UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE 
N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 75 NM OVER THE N 
AND WITHIN 150 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLES OF HER CENTER. UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS NEARLY CONCENTRIC. THE RADIUS OF TROPICAL STORM 
FORCE WINDS IS ALSO BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC WITH TIME. THE 
FORECAST IS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS 
THEN ELIDA WILL TRACK ACROSS COOLER SURFACE WATERS AND THIS 
SHOULD WEAKEN HER TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BY 36 HOURS. 

LOW PRES NEAR 09N94W 1009 MB IS MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. 
SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W AT 
ABOUT 10 KT FOR 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO SPEED UP A LITTLE 
REACHING NEAR 10N99W THU MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT 
THIS CYCLONE MAY SLOWLY DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

...TROPICAL WAVE... 

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 03N ALONG 98W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED N OF 12N ALONG THE WAVE AXIS.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS FLUCTUATING FROM 08N TO 10N TO THE E OF 140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 
150 NM OF LINE FROM 06N78W TO 05N98W THEN THE CONVECTION NARROWS 
TO WITHIN ROUGHLY 30 NM LINE FROM 07N103W TO 09N133W. 

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY W 
OF THE AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
19N150W S TO A BASE NEAR 02N151W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI 
STATIONARY NEAR 35N123W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW ALONG 30N130W 
TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 26N149W. JUST TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE AN 
UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N118W AND HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
NEARLY 20 KT ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN 240 NM 
OF ITS CENTER. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF THE 
ITCZ TO THE W OF 120W. SURFACE HIGH PRES 1018 MB IS ANALYZED AT 
31N122W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS QUASI STATIONARY NEAR 29N102W WITH ITS 
RIDGE DOMINATING THE AREA FROM 20N TO 34N BETWEEN 85W AND 112W.  
THE UPPER EASTERLIES S OF THIS RIDGE IS PUSHING BOTH THE UPPER 
CYCLONE MENTION ABOVE AND HURCN ELIDA WESTWARD.

FURTHER TO THE S...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM TROPICAL 
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED N OF BERMUDA...SW ACROSS THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE IN THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE COSTA RICA AND 
NICARAGUA BORDER. A SMALL UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N75W. THE RESULT IS NE FLOW ALOFT OVER THE 
TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 115W...WHICH IS ADVECTING DEBRIS MOISTURE 
FORM THE ITCZ CONVECTION S ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 117W.

GAP WINDS...E WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TODAY 
AND THEN DIMINISH BY SUNRISE THU.

SOUTHERLY SWELLS 8 TO 10 FT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE N ACROSS THE 
EQUATOR WED REACHING TO ALONG 05N BETWEEN 92W AND 128W LATE WED 
NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY REACHING THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA 
AROUND SUNRISE SAT.

$$
NELSON