000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 15 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ELIDA MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH...AT 15/0300 UTC...ELIDA 
AT 16.0N 110.6W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES 981 MB.  ELIDA REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
ALOFT TO MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION.  WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 
25N118W HAS INCREASED DIFFLUENT FLOW AND CUT BACK ELY SHEAR THAT 
HAD CURTAILED ELIDA'S DEVELOPMENT.  ELIDA SHOULD REACH MAX 
STRENGTH WITHIN NEXT 12-18 HR THEN START IRREVERSIBLE WEAKENING 
AS IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS...ADVERSE CONFLUENT FLOW AND 
REINFORCED ELY SHEAR ALOFT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE QUADRANT. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 97W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  LOW PRES 
1008 MB E OF WAVE AXIS AT 09N93W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  EXPECT WAVE TO CONTINUE 
W WITH LOW PRES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
NEXT 36-48 HR.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 11N86W TO 08N106W TO 08N134W TO 09N140W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF 
AXIS E OF 108W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF 
AXIS FROM 108W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES PORTION OF AREA N OF ITCZ W OF 120W 
KEEPING AIR MASS VERY DRY AND STABLE.  BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS DOMINATES FLOW E OF 120W EXCEPT FOR 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 25N118W...DETAILED ABOVE...AND WEAK TROUGH 
FROM 22N96W TO 14N96W.  THIS TROUGH WEAKENS ELY SHEAR OVER LOW 
PRES CENTER AT 09N93W ALLOWING SOME SLOW BUT STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION.  GLOBAL MODEL DRIFTS TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW 
PRES IMPLYING CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT. 

BROAD ANTICYCLONE GYRE OVER CARIBBEAN SPILLS PLENTY OF WARM 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO E PAC JUST ALONG ITCZ LATITUDE TO 
WARRANT MORE CONVECTION E OF 110W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N133W TO 
13N138W.  AIR MASS TOO DRY TO ALLOW TROUGH ANY CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND IT.  

$$
WALLY BARNES