000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142221
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
HURRICANE ELIDA CONTINUES SLOW INTENSIFICATION...AT 14/2100 
UTC...ELIDA AT 15.8N 109.7W MOVING W OR 275 DEG AT 9 KT.  
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 981 MB.  AS EXPECTED ELIDA HAS 
FOUND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO INCREASE DEEP CONVECTION.  
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AT 24N117W HAS INCREASED DIFFLUENT FLOW 
AND CUT BACK ELY SHEAR THAT HAD CURTAILED ELIDA'S DEVELOPMENT.  
ELIDA SHOULD REACH MAX STRENGTH WITHIN NEXT 12-24 HR THEN START 
AN IRREVERSIBLE WEAKENING AS IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS...ADVERSE 
CONFLUENT FLOW AND REINFORCED ELY SHEAR ALOFT.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM SE 
QUADRANT. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE N OF 04N ALONG 96W MOVING W AT 15 KT.  LOW PRES 
1008 MB E OF WAVE AXIS AT 10.93W.  NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM W SEMICIRCLE.  EXPECT WAVE TO CONTINUE 
W WITH LOW PRES POSSIBLY DEVELOPING INTO TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
NEXT 36-48 HR.  

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 10N83W TO 09N91W TO 07N98W TO 08N104W TO 08N129W 
TO 09N137W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS E OF 106W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 106W-132W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES PORTION OF AREA N OF ITCZ W OF 120W 
KEEPING AIR MASS VERY DRY AND STABLE.  BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN 
ANTICYCLONE OVER TEXAS DOMINATES FLOW E OF 120W EXCEPT FOR 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N117W...DETAILED ABOVE...AND WEAK TROUGH 
FROM 20N99W TO 14N96W.  THIS TROUGH WEAKENS ELY SHEAR OVER LOW 
PRES CENTER AT 10N93W ALLOWING SOME SLOW BUT STEADY 
INTENSIFICATION.  GLOBAL MODEL DRIFTS TROUGH ALONG WITH SFC LOW 
PRES IMPLYING CONTINUED SLOW DEVELOPMENT. 

BROAD ANTICYCLONE GYRE OVER CARIBBEAN SPILLS PLENTY OF WARM 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR INTO E PAC JUST ALONG ITCZ LATITUDE TO 
WARRANT MORE CONVECTION E OF 110W. 

ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N126W TO 
21N131W.  AIR MASS TOO DRY TO ALLOW TROUGH ANY CHANCE OF 
DEVELOPING CONVECTION AROUND IT.  

$$
WALLY BARNES