000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

ELIDA CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS MORNING. AT 14/1500 
UTC...ELIDA IS NEAR 15.9N 109.1W MOVING W OR 280 DEG AT 12 KT 
UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE TO THE N. ESTIMATED MINIMUM 
CENTRAL PRES 984 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. ELIDA 
SHOULD REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE...AND LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR ANOTHER 
24 HOURS...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINALLY WARM 
WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS SHOULD WEAKEN IT TO A 
TROPICAL STORM BEYOND 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 3N ALONG 95W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRES IS ANALYZED E OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR  
AT 10.5N91W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OBSERVED 
WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. EXPECT THE WAVE TO 
CONTINUE W AT 15 KT WITH THE LOW PRES MOVING W AT ABOUT 8 KT 
AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY INTO A 
TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N83W 13N97W 10N113W 9N125W 9N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION N OF 4N BETWEEN 
86W AND 95W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS NEAR 6N77W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE N PORTION OF THE AREA 
INCLUDING ALSO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON A HIGH 
NEAR 32N124W WHILE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR THE BORDER 
OF CHIHUAHUA AND NEW MEXICO. JUST TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE AN 
UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 22N134W AND IS MOVING W.

AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N125W TO 20N128W. THIS 
TROUGH SEPARATES A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS FROM ANOTHER HIGH 
PRES NEAR 32N122W. 

GAP WINDS...E WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT 2 DAYS.

$$
GR