000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140957
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ELIDA IS NEAR 16.2N 108.2W AT 987 MB MOVING W-NW OR 
285 DEG AT 14 KT UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE TO THE N. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 60 NM OVER THE N AND 
WITHIN 120 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLES. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OVER 
THE N AND WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE S SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. UPPER 
LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BECOMING MORE CONCENTRIC AS THE EASTERLY SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE FORECAST IS FOR A MINIMAL HURRICANE FOR 
ABOUT 24 HOURS THEN ELIDA WILL TRACK ACROSS COOLER SURFACE 
WATERS AND THIS SHOULD WEAKEN HER TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BY 
36 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 03N ALONG 93W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT. A PERSISTENT CYCLONIC SWIRL IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB LOW 
PRES AT 10.5N90.5W. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 270 NM OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF CENTER. EXPECT 
THE WAVE TO CONTINUE W AT 15 KT WITH THE LOW PRES MOVING W AT 
ABOUT 08 KT AND SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...POSSIBLY 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG POINTS 09N78W TO 08N88W TO 13N98W TO 
07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED 
FROM 05N TO 10N TO THE E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LAYER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY W 
OF THE AREA AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER CYCLONE AT 
19N146W S TO A BASE NEAR 02N148W. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH 
IS COMPLETELY ALOFT AS Q-SCAT WINDS ARE ANTICYCLONIC THROUGHOUT 
THE AREA. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NOTED NEAR 35N124W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SW ALONG 27N134W TO A SHARP CREST NEAR 24N147W. JUST 
TO THE S OF THIS RIDGE AN UPPER CYCLONE IS CENTERED NEAR 25N113W 
AND IS MOVING W AT NEARLY 20 KT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION WAS 
ENHANCED...N OF THIS CYCLONE UNDER THE RIDGE...OVER NORTHERN OLD 
MEXICO. SOME OF THE DEBRIS MOISTURE IS TRAPPED WITHIN THE 
CYCLONE AND IS MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC N OF 22N E OF 115W AT THE 
MOMENT. OTHERWISE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE VERY DRY N OF THE ITCZ W 
OF 122W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N125W TO 
20N128W. THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A RIDGE OVER THE NW WATERS FROM 
ANOTHER HIGH PRES NEAR 32N122W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS STATIONARY NEAR 31N97W WITH ITS RIDGE 
DOMINATING NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND IS PUSHING BOTH THE UPPER 
CYCLONE MENTION ABOVE AND HURCN ELIDA WESTWARD. FURTHER TO THE 
S...A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N TO S OVER FLORIDA AND 
THEN TURNS SW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO INTO A DEEP LAYERED 
CYCLONE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N82W. THE RESULT IS NE FLOW ALOFT OVER 
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 115W...WHICH IS ADVECTING DEBRIS 
MOISTURE FORM THE ITCZ CONVECTION S ACROSS THE EQUATOR E OF 120W.

GAP WINDS...E WINDS TO 20 KT ARE NOTED OVER AND DOWNSTREAM OF 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR AT 2 DAYS.

$$
NELSON