000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140341
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON JUL 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 15.5N 106.8W AT 14/0300 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
285 DEG AT 12 KT.  MAX SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  ELIDA'S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY 
HINDERED BY MODERATE ELY SHEAR WHICH HAS DIMINISHED AS CYCLONE 
MOVES W.  HOWEVER...ELIDA IS APPROACHING RELATIVE SMALL AREA OF 
FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD HELP INTENSIFY STORM... 
POSSIBLY TO MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HR.
THEREAFTER...ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT FLOW COMBINED WITH 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD START IRREVERSIBLE 
DEGRADATION OF ELIDA INTO ITS DEMISE.  PRESENT NUMEROUS STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER SHOULD DECREASE IN AREA AND 
INTENSITY BEYOND 36 HR. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N TO EL SALVADOR HAS A 1008 MB 
EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 10N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER.  LOW PRES FORECAST 
TO MOVE W-NW AT 10 KT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT MAINLY N OF 
CENTER. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 6N TO 17N.  LOW PRES THAT SPUN OFF 
WAVE FEW DAYS AGO CURRENTLY NEAR 20N115W WITH 1011 MB CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN.  SAT PICTURE SHOWS VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W 
AT 10 KT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG AXIS 09N83W TO 09N88W TO 08N93W TO 11N99W TO 
08N110W TO 09N130W TO 08N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 93W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 
30 NM S OF AXIS FROM 101W TO 112W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS LARGE PORTION OF EPAC WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF ITCZ AXIS AND W OF 118W.  UPPER-LEVEL 
ELY WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT 
INTENSIFICATION OF ELIDA ARE DIMINISHING AS ELIDA MOVES W.  WEAK 
CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 20N111W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW 
SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ELIDA'S PATH LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION 
AND HELP TEMPORARY STRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE...POSSIBLY 
TO HURRICANE STRENGTH.  ENVIRONMENT BECOMES ADVERSE ALMOST 
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM AND EXPECTED TO CURTAIL ANY FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT THEN START ITS FINAL WEAKENING TREND.

BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING PLENTY OF WARM MOIST 
TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ.  EXPECT CONTINUOUS DEEP 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD E OF 100W.   
 
...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N125W TO 22N131W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 
1011 MB AT 24N127W.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THIS 
FEATURE GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS.  LOW PRES AND 
TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 36 HR.

$$
WALLY BARNES