000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132225
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 15.6N 105.3W AT 13/2100 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
290 DEG AT 12 KT.  MAX SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  ELIDA'S DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN PARTIALLY 
HINDERED BY MODERATE ELY SHEAR WHICH HAS DIMINISHED AS CYCLONE 
MOVES W.  HOWEVER...ELIDA IS APPROACHING RELATIVE SMALL AREA OF 
FAVORABLE UPPER ENVIRONMENT WHICH COULD HELP INTENSIFY STORM... 
ALTHOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THRESHOLD INTO HURRICANE STRENGTH 
...FOR THE NEXT 24 HR.  THEREAFTER...ADVERSE UPPER LEVEL 
CONFLUENT FLOW COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
SHOULD START IRREVERSIBLE DEGRADATION OF ELIDA INTO ITS DEMISE.  
PRESENT NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER 
SHOULD DECREASE IN ARE AND INTENSITY AFTER 36 HR. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 89W N OF 5N TO EL SALVADOR HAS A 1008 MB 
EMBEDDED LOW PRES AT 10N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER.  LOW PRES FORECAST 
TO MOVE W-NW AT 10 KT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT MAINLY N OF 
CENTER. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 120W FROM 6N TO 17N.  LOW PRES THAT SPUN OFF 
WAVE FEW DAYS AGO CURRENTLY NEAR 20N115W WITH 1011 MB CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN.  SAT PICTURE SHOWS VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW 
CLOUDS HOWEVER...IT IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W 
AT 10 KT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE MON NIGHT OR EARLY TUE.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG AXIS 09N84W TO 10N88W TO 09N92W TO 11N98W TO 
08N110W TO 08N120W TO 07N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS E OF 94W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS FROM 98W-114W.

...DISCUSSION...
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS LARGE PORTION OF EPAC WITH MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF ITCZ AXIS AND W OF 118W.  UPPER-LEVEL 
ELY WINDS ON SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT 
INTENSIFICATION OF ELIDA.  WEAK CYCLONIC VORTEX AT 24N110W 
PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF ELIDA'S 
PATH LIKELY TO ENHANCE DEEP CONVECTION AND HELP TEMPORARY 
STRENGTHENING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE.  ENVIRONMENT BECOMES ADVERSE 
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM EXPECTED TO CURTAIL FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT.

BROAD RIDGE OVER WRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING PLENTY OF WARM MOIST 
TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO E PAC ALONG ITCZ.  EXPECT CONTINUOUS DEEP 
CONVECTION THROUGHOUT FORECAST PERIOD E OF 100W.   
 
...ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 32N123W TO 21N136W WITH EMBEDDED LOW PRES 
1013 MB AT 24N126W.  NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ASSOCIATED TO THIS 
FEATURE GIVEN THE VERY DRY NATURE OF AIR MASS.  LOW PRES AND 
TROUGH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN NEXT 36 HR.

$$
WALLY BARNES