000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131544
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 15.2N 104.1W AT 12/2100 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
290 DEG AT 13 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 55 WITH GUSTS TO 65 
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 994 MB. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A STRONG 
BURSTING PATTERN NEAR THE CENTER OF ELIDA WITH BANDING FEATURES 
BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS 
CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER. THE EASTERLY SHEAR 
CONTINUES TO ALLOW ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND THE FORECAST IS 
FOR ELIDA TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE IN ABOUT 
24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...ELIDA WILL TRACK ACROSS COOLER SURFACE 
WATERS AND THIS SHOULD WEAKEN IT TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 
36 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W N OF 5N CROSSING CENTRAL AMERICA 
INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. A 1009 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE 
WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N THIS MORNING. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY WITHIN 120 NM W OF CENTER. THE 
LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE W-NW NEAR 10KT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 
20 KT MAINLY N OF CENTER. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 6N TO 17N. VERY LITTLE 
CONVECTION IS NOTED. THE LOW PRES THAT SPUN OFF THE WAVE A FEW 
DAYS AGO IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20N115W WITH 1011 MB...AND CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN. VIS SAT PICTURE SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF 
LOW CLOUDS. EXPECT THIS LOW TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W NW 
AT 10 KT EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N90W 10N102W 9N118W 7N125W 7N140W. 
OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW NEAR 
10N88W...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 120 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 98W AND 103W...AND BETWEEN 108W AND 114W. 

...DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS A LARGE PORTION OF EPAC WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF THE ITCZ AXIS AND W OF 120W.  
UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS 
RIDGE CONTINUES TO LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION OF ELIDA. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...A SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N124W TO 21N132W.  A 
1012 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR 25.5N125.5W. HIGH 
PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA BEHIND 
THE TROUGH PRODUCING MODERATE N TO NE WINDS. THIS LOW IS 
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24 HOURS WHILE THE TROUGH WILL 
REMAIN. A LARGE FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERS THE REGION 
N OF 18N W OF 123W.  

$$
GR