000
AXPZ20 KNHC 131002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA IS NEAR 14.8N 103.0W AT 994 MB. ELIDA IS 
MOVING W-NW OR 290 DEG AT 14 KT UNDER A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE 
TO THE N. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NOTED WITHIN 
150 NM OVER THE SW SEMICIRCLE. A BAND OF SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FLARED WELL N OF THE CENTER...WITHIN 15 
NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 16N104W TO 16N99W. THE EASTERLY 
SHEAR THAT WAS IMPEDING DEVELOPMENT HAS DECREASED AND THE 
FORECAST IS FOR ELIDA TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL 
HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN A HURRICANE FOR ABOUT A DAY.
THEREAFTER...ELIDA WILL TRACK ACROSS COOLER SURFACE WATERS AND 
THIS SHOULD WEAKEN HER TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 48 HOURS. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED N OF 03N ALONG 80W HAS BEEN MOVING W AT 
15 KT. CONVECTION IS FLARING OVER THE GULF OF PANAMA AND OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN. 

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 16N ALONG 119W WAS REPOSITIONED ON 
SAT WITH ITS W MOTION ESTIMATED AT 15 KT WITH VERY LITTLE 
CONVECTION NOTED. THE LOW PRES THAT SPUN OFF THE WAVE A FEW DAYS 
AGO IS CURRENTLY NEAR 20N114W AT 1008 MB...AND IS BEGINNING TO 
WEAKEN. THERE IS CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CONVECTION REMAINING NEAR 
THIS LOW BUT W WINDS ARE 20-25 KT OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. EXPECT 
THIS LOW TO FURTHER WEAKEN AS IT MOVES W NW AT 10 KT EVENTUALLY 
DISSIPATING LATE MON NIGHT OR TUE MORNING.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG POINTS 09N84W TO 09N100W TO  08N108W 
TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED FROM 03N TO 13N TO THE E OF 111W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE W OF THE AREA AND 
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 08N147W TO 24N145W. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE 
IS NOTED NEAR 32N135W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO A CREST NEAR 
21N144W. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD SW PUSHING 
THE TROUGH FURTHER W WITH TIME. 

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 35N117W TO 25N128W. AT THE 
SURFACE...THIS TROUGH SEPARATES A HIGH PRES NEAR 34N143W 1023 MB 
FROM ANOTHER HIGH PRES NEAR 28N117W. 

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 31N98W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A SHARP 
CREST AT 18N120W. AN EMBEDDED UPPER CYCLONE OVER NW OLD MEXICO 
NEAR 26N106W AND APPEARS NEARLY STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. AN 
UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS CONTINUES SW OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN. EXCEPT FOR THIS SMALL CYCLONE AND UPPER TROUGH...
THE RIDGE DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF THE ITCZ E OF 100W. 
THE ASSOCIATED UPPER DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING CONVECTION FROM 05N 
TO 20N...INCLUDING ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 120W...AND ALSO THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ELIDA. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE SEEMS CONTAINED E OF 120W WHILE THE UPPER LEVELS W OF 
OF 120W ARE DRY. 

$$
NELSON