000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130342
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN JUL 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 14.4N 101.5W AT 13/0300 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
295 DEG AT 14 KT.  MAX SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 50 WITH GUSTS TO 60 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 997 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  ELIDA IS PULLING AWAY FROM UNFAVORABLE UPPER 
LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND NOW ABLE TO BETTER DEVELOP ITS OUTFLOW 
LOWERING ITS PRES AND INCREASING MAX WINDS.  DIMIISH SHEAR WILL 
FURTHER ALLOW ELIDA TO INTENSIFY INTO HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE 
TURNING INTO A MORE NWLY COURSE WITHIN NEXT 24 HR. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 115W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
LOW PRES ON NRN EDGE OF WAVE AT 20N113W 1008 MB HAS BEEN UNABLE 
TO SURVIVE ELY SHEAR AND LOST MOST DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT SOME 
MINOR SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM IN W QUADRANT OF LOW PRES
CENTER.
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 09N83W TO 09N90W TO 12N95W TO 09N110W TO 10N119W 
TO 10N134W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 90W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 102W-113W.

...DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER LARGE PORTION OF E PAC WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING OUT AREA N OF 10N W OF 
115W.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS 
PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTEND SE OF CENTER FORCING SOME E-NE SHEAR 
OVER TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AS MENTIONED UNDER SPECIAL FEATURE 
SECTION.  

HEALTHY ANTICYCLONE OVER SWRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING PLENTY OF WARM 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO ITCZ LATITUDES IN E PAC MAINTAINING 
ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION E OF 93W.    
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB WELL N OF AREA AND LOW PRES 1014 MB OVER 
CALIFORNIA TIGHTENS GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXTENDING TO N OF 27N FROM 125W TO 135W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN NEXT 24 HR.  

$$
WALLY BARNES