000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122229
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AT 13.5N 100.4W AT 12/2100 UTC MOVE W-NW OR 
290 DEG AT 15 KT.  MAX SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 40 WITH GUSTS TO 50 
KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRES 1002 MB.  SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS.  ELIDA'S ARRESTED OUTFLOW OVER ERN SEMICIRCLE 
DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG ELY SHEAR SHOULD DIMINISH AS SYSTEM 
CONTINUES MOVING W ALLOWING ELIDA TO INTENSIFY INTO HURRICANE 
STRENGTH WHILE TURNING INTO A MORE NWLY COURSE. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 114W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15 KT.
LOW PRES ON NRN EDGE OF WAVE AT 20N112W 1008 MB HAS BEEN UNABLE 
TO SURVIVE ELY SHEAR AND LOST MOST DEEP CONVECTION EXCEPT SOME 
MINOR SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM IN NW QUADRANT OF LOW 
CENTER.
  
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG 08N83W TO 09N91W TO 12N95W TO 11N113W TO 10N124W 
TO 10N134W TO 09N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS E OF 92W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 99W-108W.

...DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVER LARGE PORTION OF E PAC WITH 
MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE DRYING OUT AREA N OF 10N W OF 
115W.  UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL MEXICO HAS 
PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTEND SE OF CENTER FORCING SOME E-NE SHEAR 
OVER TROPICAL STORM ELIDA AS MENTIONED UNDER SPECIAL FEATURE 
SECTION.  

HEALTHY ANTICYCLONE OVER SWRN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING PLENTY OF WARM 
MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS INTO ITCZ LATITUDES IN E PAC MAINTAINING 
ACTIVE DEEP CONVECTION E OF 93W.    
 
ELSEWHERE AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES 1028 MB WELL N OF AREA AND LOW PRES 1014 MB OVER 
CALIFORNIA TIGHTENS GRADIENT TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS 
EXTENDING TO N OF 27N FROM 125W TO 135W EXPECTED TO DIMINISH 
WITHIN NEXT 24 HR.  

$$
WALLY BARNES