000
AXPZ20 KNHC 121553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM ELIDA CENTERED NEAR 13.2N 98.5W AT 12/1500 UTC 
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEG AT 14 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WIND 
SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 1002 MB. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER 
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP1/WTPZ21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 
ELIDA'S OUTFLOW REMAINS A LITTLE RESTRICTED OVER THE 
NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE...SUGGESTING SOME EASTERLY SHEAR 
REMAINS. SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS KEEP ELIDA BELOW HURRICANE 
STRENGTH WHILE OTHERS PREDICT STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRING THE 
CYCLONE TO HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL NHC 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ELIDA TO BE A HURRICANE IN 48 HOURS. ELIDA IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
LOCATED OVER MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 112W/113W FROM 4N TO 17N MOVING W NEAR 
15 KT. LOW PRES HAS SPUN OFF THE WAVE AND CURRENTLY IS LOCATED 
NEAR 19.8N 110.6W WITH 1008 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG WITHIN 60 NM W SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE WAVE AXIS AND THE ITCZ.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N80W 10N95W 10N110W 8N125W 8N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 6N TO 10N E 
OF 90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND NEAR 8N96W. 

...DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N130W DOMINATES THE NW 
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 
13N138W. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS SEEN NEAR 119W N OF 20N. THE 
RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE AREA DURING THE 24 HOURS 
WHILE THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST BY THE COMPUTER MODELS TO MOVE 
OUT OF AREA. 
 
AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS WITHIN THE ITCZ AND RUNS FROM 
12N118W TO 8N122W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE SOUTHERN END 
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ANOTHER SFC TROUGH RUNS FROM 30N121W TO 
23N128W. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA 
BEHIND THE TROUGH.  

$$
GR