000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120955
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORMED NEAR 12N96W EARLY THIS MORNING 
AND HAS SINCE INTENSIFIED TO TROPICAL STORM ELIDA NEAR 12.5N 
96.7W AT 1005 MB. ELIDA IS MOVING W NW OR 300 DEG AT 12 KT. 
NUMEROUS STRONG STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 240 NM W AND 
WITHIN 120 NM E SEMICIRCLES OF CENTER. THE EASTERLY SHEAR THAT 
THE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT HAS WEAKENED AND THE ELIDA 
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W NW ACROSS WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 3 OF 
DAYS THEN COOLER WATERS LATER NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...ELIDA IS 
EXPECTED GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A MINIMAL HURRICANE BY MON 
NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN. 

...TROPICAL WAVE...

A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N TO 17N ALONG 110W HAS MOVED W 15 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW PRES HAS SPUN OFF THE WAVE NEAR 
19.5N110.5W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE. SCATTERED STRONG IS 
NOTED N OF THE CENTER WITHIN 30 NM OF 21N110W.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 08N77W TO 12N96W TO 10N117W TO 
09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF LINE FROM 05N77W TO 06N96W TO 
10N99W TO 09N109W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES JUST W OF THE AREA ALONG 
08N138W TO 19N142W TO 31N143W. AT THE SURFACE...A NORTH TO SOUTH 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N143W TO 25N145W. A NORTH TO SOUTH SURFACE 
RIDGE HAS BUILT S FROM 32N137W TO 17N142W.

AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 31N110W WITH A RIDGE SW TO A SHARP 
CREST AT 18N140W. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
32N123W SW TO 20N127W. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS TROUGH WILL 
MOVE SLOWLY W TO ALONG 130W N OF 18N MON. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED 
N OF 08N W OF 120W.
 
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 125W BUT ONLY 
SLIGHTLY AND ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT 
DEBRIS MOISTURE REMAINS S OF 20N.  

$$
NELSON