000
AXPZ20 KNHC 120350
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT JUL 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRESSURE ESTIMATED AT 1009 MB IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 
NM S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTAPEC.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0014 UTC 
SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT OVER THE NW QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 
100 NM.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO BE FEEDING 
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...SEEMINGLY INCREASING 
THE LOW LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.  THE 
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE 
FOUND MAINLY IN THE NW QUADRANT FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 96W AND 
99W.  THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAYT OR SO AS IT MOVES 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.


...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 110W FROM 5N TO 17N MOVING W AT 15-20 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE 
SFC LOW THAT HAD PREVIOUSLY BEEN ATTACHED TO THE NORTHERN EDGE 
OF THIS WAVE HAS BROKEN TO THE NORTH...LEAVING THIS POORLY 
DEFINED WAVE TO PASS TO ITS SOUTH AS IT BATTLES 20 KT WLY FLOW.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 08N77W 11N97W 10N111W 
10N120W 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM OF 
AXIS E OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 04N TO 07N 
BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W AND 108W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
IN ADDITION TO THE LOW MENTIONED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES 
SECTION...A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROXIMATELY 210 NM S 
OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA HAS SEPARATED FROM THE 
TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS S.  A STRONG...COMPACT CONVECTIVE BURST 
OCCURRED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS.  
HOWEVER...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS...IT ONLY 
HAS A SHORT TIME TO DEVELOP FURTHER.  ELSESEWHERE...CROSS 
EQUATORIAL FLOW DOMINATES THE REGION S OF 06N.


W OF 120W...
N SWELL FROM BOTH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS AND 
THE LOW NE OF HAWAII CONTINUE TO ELEVATE SEAS OVER THE NORTHERN 
WATERS...BUT LOOK FOR THIS SWELL TO SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT 
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.  ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO EXPAND W ALONG 30N FROM THE BAJA...PROVIDING 
SUBSIDENCE TO MUCH OF THE REGION AND LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER. 

$$
SCHAUER CLARK