000
AXPZ20 KNHC 112204
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 250 NM SE OF THE COAST 
OF GUATEMALA NEAR 10N95W...ANALYZED 1009 MB. THIS SYSTEM HAS 
BEEN SLOWLY ORGANIZING THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER NO LONGER COMPLETELY EXPOSED. DEEP CONVECTION IS 
ORGANIZED WITHIN 250-300 NM NW OF THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS 
AROUND 16Z REVEALED 20-25 KT MAINLY WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE 
CENTER. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVED 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 109W FROM 06N TO 19N MOVING W 15-20 KT 
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE N 
PART OF THE WAVE NEAR 18N...MORE ON THIS BELOW. THE SOUTHERN 
PORTION OF THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AND WILL LIKELY FRACTURE AS 
IT IS EMBEDDED IN 20 KT WLY FLOW.

THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 123W HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM 
THE SFC ANALYSIS DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNATURE OVER THE PAST FEW 
DAYS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG A LOW-CLOUD SWIRL FROM 
14N123N 18N120W...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH ITS REMNANTS. 
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 05N77W 10N107W 09N116W 11N125W 
08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 240 NM N OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 84W AND 89W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM S OF 
AXIS BETWEEN 96W-101W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 102W 
AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 120W...
IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES MENTIONED IN SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION...ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 
BAJA NEAR 18N108W. THERE HAVE BEEN SPORADIC LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS 
SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OFF 
THE MEXICAN COAST W OF MANZANILLO. THE FEATURE S OF BAJA MAY BE 
MID LEVEL AT THIS TIME...WITH EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE 
CIRCULATION IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT TO THE SW OF THE MID 
LEVEL CENTER...S OF SOCORRO ISLAND. A LARGE MASS OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 105W-111W. THIS 
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS SO IT ONLY HAS A SMALL 
WINDOW TO DEVELOP FURTHER. 

W OF 120W...
MID TO UPPER RIDGING EXTENDS W FROM NRN BAJA AND AN UPPER LOW IS 
SITUATED NEAR 12N135W. THIS OVERALL PATTERN IS PRODUCING LITTLE 
SENSIBLE WEATHER. DESPITE THE OVERALL CONTINUED WEAK PRESSURE 
PATTERN...RESIDUAL N SWELL CONTINUES TO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED TO 
NEAR 10 FT N OF 27N BETWEEN 126W AND 133W AS NOTED IN COUPLE OF 
SHIP OBSERVATIONS. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE DECAYING 
BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CANGIALOSI