000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111618
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

LOW PRESSURE ESTIMATED TO BE AROUND 1009 MB AT 12Z IS CENTERED 
NEAR 10N93W. THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE 
PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION NOTED TO 
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A QUIKSCAT PASS 
FROM AROUND 12Z SHOWED EVIDENCE OF EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS UP TO 
30 KT OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE 
CENTER...SHOWING THE SYSTEM IS BETTER ORGANIZED. TROPICAL 
CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS SOUTH OF 
MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE N OF 08N ALONG 107W MOVING W 10 TO 15 
KT. LOW PRES IS ANALYZED ALONG THE AXIS AT 17N107W WITH AN 
ESTIMATED PRES OF 1010 MB. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 210 NM IN THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF 
CENTER. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 123W FROM 11N TO 21N MOVING W AT 10 TO 
15 KT. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 
16N122W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 07N78W TO 12N95W TO 10N125W TO 
07N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S 
OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 101W.

...DISCUSSION...

IN ADDITION TO THE DEVELOPING LOW PRES MENTIONED IN SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION...ANOTHER LOW PRES AREA IS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF 
BAJA NEAR 18N107W. THERE HAVE BEEN SPORADIC LOW LEVEL ROTATIONS 
SHOWING UP IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS OFF 
THE MEXICAN COAST W OF MANZANILLO. THE FEATURE S OF BAJA MAY BE 
MID LEVEL AT THIS TIME...WITH EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SURFACE 
CIRCULATION IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND QUIKSCAT TO THE SW OF THE MID 
LEVEL CENTER...S OF SOCORRO ISLAND. A LARGE MASS OF 
THUNDERSTORMS IS EVIDENT AS WELL NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL 
CENTER...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LOW LEVEL CENTER MAY BE 
FORMING BENEATH THE CONVECTION.

OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ REMAINS FAIRLY 
MODEST DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY CONVERGENCE. SHIP OBSERVATIONS FROM 
EARLIER THIS MORNING INDICATING NORTH SWELL UP TO 9 FT STILL 
REMAINS N OF 28N W OF 125W. GLOBAL WAVE MODELS SHOW THIS WILL BE 
DECAYING BELOW 8 FT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN