000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111001
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS TO THE N OF 06N BETWEEN 105W AND 06W AND HAS 
BEEN MOVING W 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. LOW PRES IS ANALYZED 
ALONG THE AXIS AT 17N105W WITH AN ESTIMATED PRES OF 1007 MB. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED WITHIN 15 
NM OF CENTER WITH ANOTHER CLUSTER NOTED TO THE N OF THE CENTER 
WITHIN 30 NM OF 19.5N105.5W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 121W FROM 11N TO 21N AND HAS BEEN 
MOVING W AT 12 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION 
IS NOTED ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N121W. IT APPEARS A CYCLONIC 
SWIRL CUT OFF FROM THE WAVE NEAR 16N119.5W. NEITHER AREA HAS ANY 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 06N77W TO 14N103W TO 12N120W TO 
06N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 
240 NM EITHER SIDE LINE FROM 05N87W TO 11N102W TO 11N116W.

...DISCUSSION...

A BROAD DEEP LAYERED TROUGH LIES ALONG 140W FROM 01N TO 29N WITH 
AN UPPER CYCLONE NOTED NEAR 10N136W. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM 17N141W TO 32N138W. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE FURTHER W ALLOWING A SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD S ALONG 140W 
BY SUN. AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE IS NEAR 34N120W WITH A RIDGE SW TO 
ANOTHER ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N127W. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED FROM 32N120W TO 26N116W. EXPECT A WEAK SURFACE LOW TO 
FROM ALONG THIS TROUGH AND MOVE W AND STALL NEAR 29N125W FOR A 
COUPLE OF DAYS. DRY UPPER AIR IS NOTED W OF A LINE FROM 32N112W 
TO 07N132W.  
 
A SURFACE LOW PRES IS NEAR 09N91.5W 1009 MB AND IS MOVING W NW 
AT ABOUT 08 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED W OF THE EXPOSED SURFACE LOW AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF 
09N94W. E WINDS TO 20 KT ARE INDICATED OVER THE SE SEMICIRCLE.
PERHAPS ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE 
CONVECTION.

A BROAD UPPER DOMINATES THE TROPICS E OF 125W BUT ONLY SLIGHTLY 
AND ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ. THE RESULTANT DEBRIS 
MOISTURE REMAINS S OF 20N.  

$$
NELSON