000
AXPZ20 KNHC 110327
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI JUL 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 103W N OF 06N MOVING W 10-15 KT. A BROAD 
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE AXIS...ANALYZED 1007 MB. THE 
WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A LARGE DISORGANIZED AREA OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 14N BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 120W FROM 11N TO 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE HAS LIKELY FRACTURED AS IT WAS 
EMBEDDED IN LARGE SCALE SW TO W LOW-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE N 
PORTION IS STILL TRACKABLE AS NIGHT CHANNEL VIS IMAGES SHOW A 
WEAK LOW CLOUD SWIRL ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 16N. NO ASSOCIATED 
CONVECTION.
  
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N78W 13N101W 12N118W 08N130W 
06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 03N TO 05N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 04N TO 07N BETWEEN 96W AND 99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM N AND 180 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
109W AND 113W.  

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ROTATION IN THE THICK 
STRATOCUMULUS CENTERED NEAR 29N141W...ANALYZED 1014 MB. THIS LOW 
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTERRUPTED THE TYPICAL SFC RIDGING...ALLOWING 
WINDS TO BE BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE AREA. IN 
FACT...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 
BETWEEN 130W AND THE LOW. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW...OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL BAJA CONTROLS THE PATTERN. WIDESPREAD DRY AIR 
...ESPECIALLY W OF 130W...IS NOTED. RESIDUAL N SWELL IS STILL 
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED TO NEAR 8 FT N OF 28N W OF 134W...BUT THIS 
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

S OF 20N...
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 
ABOUT 330 NM S OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 08N91W. EARLIER VISIBLE AND 
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY INDICATE A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTION ORGANIZED IN A BAND FEATURE WITHIN 
180 NM W OF THE CENTER. THE STRUCTURE IS DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF 
NE SHEAR. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED ONLY MODERATE SW 
FLOW INTO THE LOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...20 KT E 
WINDS WERE NOTED NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN INDICATION THAT 
STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE CONVERGING INTO THE LOW ON ITS 
NORTHEAST SIDE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY 
TO THE WNW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 103W. SAT IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE CENTERS AT 
DIFFERENT LEVELS ...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS 
NEAR 15N103W. SHIP A8IJ4 REPORTED 29 KT ABOUT 240 NM NE OF THE 
ESTIMATED CENTER. WHILE THIS REPORT SEEMS A BIT HIGH...DECIDED 
TO INCREASE THE WINDS TO 20-25 KT IN THE HIGH SEAS TEXT DUE TO 
THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND A BLEND WITH EARLIER SCATTEROMETER 
DATA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE 
CENTER. FARTHER W...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS NEAR 09N132W AND 
16N144W ARE DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE W OF 135W.

$$
CANGIALOSI