000
AXPZ20 KNHC 102128
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 101W N OF 08N MOVING W 10 KT. A BROAD 
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE 
NEAR 16N102W. THE WAVE IS FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH A LARGE 
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 11N TO 
18N BETWEEN 97W AND 107W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 118W FROM 05N TO 17N MOVING W 10 KT. THE 
WAVE IS VERY POORLY DEFINED AND IS MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT 
OF BROAD SW TO WEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 
CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ FROM 
7N-10N BETWEEN 115W-120W.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 07N77W 09N90W 11N100W 11N116W 
08N130W 06N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 
11N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 107W AND 113W.

...DISCUSSION...

N OF 20N...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE ROTATION IN THE THICK 
STRATOCUMULUS CENTERED NEAR 29N139W...ANALYZED 1011 MB. THIS LOW 
HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INTERRUPTED THE TYPICAL SFC RIDGING 
PATTERN...ALLOWING WINDS TO BE BELOW 20 KT ACROSS THIS ENTIRE 
AREA. IN FACT...LATEST QSCAT DATA REVEALS WINDS 10 KT OR LESS 
BETWEEN 125W AND THE LOW. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKNESS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
AFOREMENTIONED LOW...OTHERWISE BROAD RIDGING CENTERED OVER 
CENTRAL BAJA CONTROLS THE PATTERN. WIDESPREAD DRY 
AIR...ESPECIALLY W OF 130W...IS NOTED. RESIDUAL N SWELL IS STILL 
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED TO NEAR 8 FT N OF 27N W OF 133W...BUT THIS 
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS.

S OF 20N...
MAIN AREA OF INTEREST IS A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED 
ABOUT 330 NM S OF EL SALVADOR NEAR 8N91W. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS 
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH CONVECTION ORGANIZED 
IN A BAND FEATURE WITHIN 150 NM W OF THE CENTER. AN EARLIER 
QUIKSCAT PASS REVEALED ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE LOW ON ITS 
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...20 KT E WINDS WERE NOTED NEAR THE 
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...AN INDICATION THAT STRONG EASTERLY TRADES ARE 
CONVERGING INTO THE LOW ON ITS NORTHEAST SIDE. SLOW DEVELOPMENT 
IS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY TO THE WNW. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW 
PRESSURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 101W. VISIBLE 
IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE CENTERS...BUT THE MAIN AREA OF CYCLONIC 
TURNING IS NEAR 16N102W. TWO SHIPS REPORTED DATA JUST NE OF THE 
ESTIMATED CENTER AT 18Z...A8IJ4 35 KT AND WFQB 20 KT. THE 20 KT 
REPORT SEEMS REASONABLE AND BLENDS WELL WITH EARLIER 
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND MODEL ANALYSIS. AN AREA OF SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION LIES WITHIN 90 NM N AND NE OF THE CENTER. 
FARTHER W...A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS NEAR 11N130W AND 16N143W IS 
DRYING THE ATMOSPHERE W OF 133W.

$$
CANGIALOSI