000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101602
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W N OF 07N MOVING W 10-15 KT. AN 
ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N99W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW ALONG 
THE WAVE FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 100W-103W...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH 
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW AND PERSISTENT WESTERLY FLOW. 

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 117W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
VERY POORLY DEFINED AND IS MOVING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF 
BROAD SW TO WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. POSITION BASED ON 
CONTINUITY. NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE.
 
...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG AXIS 06N77W TO 06N81W TO 09N100W TO 
13N112W TO 06N132W TO 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 105W TO 
110W.

...DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 
08N91W. THIS IS LOOKING A LITTLE BETTER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT 
REMAINS A FAIRLY WEAK AND DISORGANIZED COMPLEX. IT MAY HAVE MORE 
THAN ONE CENTER IN FACT...BASED ON GOES AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED ONLY MODERATE SW FLOW INTO THE 
LOW ON ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. HOWEVER...20 KT WINDS WERE NOTED 
NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO VIA QUIKSCAT...AN INDICATION THAT GOOD 
EASTERLY TRADES ARE CONVERGING INTO THE LOW ON ITS NORTH SIDE. 
THE OTHER LOW MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 100W REMAINS 
VERY WEAK AND DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. NEITHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
DEVELOP SIGNIFICANTLY AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE 
FRESH CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH LOW LEVEL 
CONVERGENCE TO SUPPORT THE SCATTERED CONVECTION MENTIONED ABOVE 
BETWEEN 105W AND 110W. W OF 115W...DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS 
LIMITED...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. FURTHER 
NORTH...NORTHERLY SWELL IS GRADUALLY DECAYING...PRIMARILY N OF 
24N W OF 125W.

$$
CHRISTENSEN