000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 10 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 05N MOVING W 15 KT. AN 
ILL-DEFINED 1007 MB LOW NEAR 14N97W MAY BE PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS WAVE. MORE ABOUT THIS LOW BELOW. THE WAVE LIES IN A 
HIGHLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 115W FROM 05N TO 19N MOVING W 15 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA 
REVEAL A SMALL LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG OR JUST E OF 
THE AXIS NEAR 18N. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED 
AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS IT IS NOW EMBEDDED IN SWIFT SW 
TO W LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N84W 13N95W 12N110W 09N120W 
07N130W 07N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 
06N-09N BETWEEN 85W-93W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N 
BETWEEN 98W-108W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
115W-120W.

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIES OVER THIS REGION LIKELY 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A COUPLE OF WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE 
ARE DEEPENING SOME OF THE MOISTURE PRODUCING A LARGE 
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION. THE EASTERN-MOST LOW...CENTERED 
NEAR 8N91W...IS POORLY DEFINED BUT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME 
IN A WEAK BAND FEATURE TO THE E OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER FROM 
6N-10N BETWEEN 89W-92W. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS IT 
TRACKS SLOWLY W OR WNW. THE OTHER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST 
OF S MEXICO NEAR 14N97W. NIGHT CHANNEL VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS 
SEVERAL LOW TO MID LEVEL SWIRLS ROTATING ABOUT A LARGER 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED 
SO ANY DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. A LARGER AREA OF DEEP 
CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED TO THE SW OF THE LOW...WITHIN THE 
ITCZ...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING WLY FLOW THAT IS FEEDING INTO 
IT. 

W OF 110W...
IN THE SUBTROPICS...WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE NW PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE ALONG 133W IS ENHANCING DRY AIR IN THE 
MID AND UPPER LEVELS AND PROVIDING A WEAK SFC PATTERN. THIS IS 
LEADING TO WIDESPREAD STABLE CONDITIONS...THICK BLANKET OF 
STRATOCUMULUS...AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...LATEST 
SCATTEROMETER DATA IS SHOWING A SURGE OF 15-20 KT N WINDS W OF 
THE SFC TROUGH N OF 28N W OF 135W. DESPITE THE OVERALL LIGHT 
FLOW...N SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED TO 8-9 FT N OF 27N W OF 
124W. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO 
BEFORE ANOTHER SWELL TRAIN ARRIVES FROM THE N. IN THE DEEP 
TROPICS...SWIFT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW WINDS ARE CONVERGING WITH 
THE LIGHTER NW WINDS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND 
EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 
114W-133W.

$$
CANGIALOSI