000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092146
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 98W N OF 07N MOVING W 15-20 KT. A 1008 MB 
LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE WAVE...LIKELY IN PART ASSOCIATED WITH 
IT...CENTERED NEAR 15N97W. THE WAVE AND LOW LIE IN A HIGHLY 
MOIST ENVIRONMENT TRIGGERING DISORGANIZED SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW AND OVER A LARGER AREA 
EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 113W FROM 05N TO 21N MOVING W 15 KT OVER 
THE PAST 24 HOURS. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA REVEAL A SMALL 
LOW CLOUD CIRCULATION CENTERED ALONG THE AXIS NEAR 18N. 
CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ. 
OTHERWISE...SWIFT SW TO W LOW-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING THE FEATURE 
WILL LIKELY SLOW THE FORWARD PROPAGATION AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT 
TO TRACK.   
 
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N79W 14N95W 12N111W 10N120W 
07N130W 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM 
N AND 240 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W-92W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 98W-108W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 116W-131W. 

...DISCUSSION...

E OF 110W...
ABUNDANT MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE LIES OVER THIS REGION PARTLY 
ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO 
AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 98W AND A COUPLE 
WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ARE DEEPENING SOME OF THE MOISTURE 
PRODUCING A DISORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE FOR 
DETAILS. THE EASTERN-MOST LOW...CENTERED NEAR 8N91W...IS POORLY 
DEFINED BUT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED SOME IN A WEAK BAND TO THE 
E OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SOME 
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY 
WESTWARD. THE OTHER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR THE COAST OF S MEXICO 
NEAR 15N98W. THIS CIRCULATION APPEARS SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED 
THAN THE ONE TO THE E...BUT CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED AND 
LIMITED. A LARGER AREA OF DEEP CLOUDINESS IS LOCATED TO THE SW 
OF THE LOW...WITHIN THE ITCZ...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGING WLY 
FLOW THAT IS FEEDING INTO IT. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM 
WOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

W OF 110W...
IN THE SUBTROPICS...WEAK DEEP LAYER TROUGHING OVER THE NW PART 
OF THE DISCUSSION ZONE IS ENHANCING DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER 
LEVELS AND A PROVIDING A WEAK SFC PATTERN. THIS IS LEADING TO 
WIDESPREAD STABLE CONDITIONS...THICK BLANKET OF STRATOCUMULUS 
...AND VERY LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER...LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA IS 
SHOWING A SURGE OF 15-20 KT N WINDS W OF THE SFC TROUGH N OF 28N 
W OF 135W. DESPITE THE LIGHT WINDS...N SWELL IS KEEPING SEAS 
ELEVATED TO 8-9 FT N OF 27N W OF 120W. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD 
SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE THE NEXT SWELL TRAIN 
ENTERS. IN THE DEEP TROPICS...SWIFT CROSS-EQUATORIAL SLY WINDS 
ARE CONVERGING WITH THE LIGHTER W TO NW WINDS PRODUCING A LARGE 
AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 116W-131W.

$$
CANGIALOSI