000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED JUL 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. 

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 95W N OF 06N TO SOUTHERN MEXICO MOVING W 15 
TO 20 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE WAVE AT 
15N96W...ALSO INTERSECTING THE ITCZ. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 
AROUND 12Z SHOW FRESH W WINDS CONVERGING INTO THE LOW. THIS IS 
SPARKING MODEST CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW CENTER...WITH SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY W OF THE LOW WHERE CONVECTION IS 
BETTER.

SECOND TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 111W N OF 08N TO 20N MOVING W 15 TO 
20 KT.  N CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO A 
GENERALLY DRY AREA.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS 09N84W TO 14N96W TO 13N111W TO 07N130W TO 07N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
87W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 
101W. WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
E OF 110W...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A SURGE 
OF FRESH SW TO W WINDS FLOWING INTO AND ALONG THE 
ITCZ...ENHANCING ROTATION AROUND TWO WEAK LOW PRES CENTERS OFF 
THE MEXICAN AND CENTRAL AMERICAN COASTS. THE FIRST LOW IS 
MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG THE WAVE AT 95W. THE CENTERED IS NOT WELL 
DEFINED...BUT THE BEST CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE 
IS OFF THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR PUERTO ANGEL. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS 
LOW IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME ESPECIALLY GIVEN ITS PROXIMITY 
TO THE COAST. THE SECOND LOW IS ALSO POORLY DEFINED AT THIS TIME 
NEAR 08N90W. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS LOW IS 
PROVIDING CONVERGENCE INTO THE ITCZ AND ENHANCING CONVECTION AS 
NOTED ABOVE BETWEEN 87N AND 96W. CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS 
BEING SHEARED DUE TO MID TO UPPER EAST FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF 
AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL BAJA.

W OF 110W...15 TO 20 KT CROSS-EQUATORIAL FLOW IS ENHANCING WEAK 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA...IN SOME PART 
DUE TO SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN 
UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 15N135W. FURTHER NORTH...8 TO 9 FT NORTH 
SWELL IS PUSHING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA...WEST OF BAJA. THIS IS FORECAST TO DECAY AND 
SHIFT WEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN